Intelligent industrial equipment has become the basis for the global manufacturing upgrade and transformation. Developed countries have taken manufacturing upgrades as the primary task of the “third industrial revolution”. The U.S. trend of "re-industrialization", Germany's "Industry 4.0" and "connected factories" strategy, and manufacturing transitions in countries such as Japan and South Korea are not simply the return of traditional manufacturing, but are accompanied by an increase in production efficiency and innovation in production patterns. And the development of emerging industries.

Over the past 10 years, China has experienced rough development marked by the rapid development of construction machinery. In the next decade, China will enter the stage of intensive development and manufacturing transformation and upgrading marked by the rapid development of intelligent industrial equipment. Compared with the initial period of development of construction machinery, foreign brands in the industrial intelligence industry will pay more attention to domestic enterprises, and system integration will become the entry point for domestic enterprises. At present, China's industrial intelligent industrial chain is gradually improving, and the corporate development model is gradually clear. With the adjustment of China's labor force structure and industrial structure, intelligent equipment with the functions of perception, analysis, reasoning, decision-making and control will become the main force of the “third industrial revolution”.

The rise of "reindustrialization" in developed countries

The first industrial revolution was the replacement of manpower by machinery, the second industrial revolution was an automatic replacement of manuals, and the third industrial revolution was the automation upgrade to intelligence. At present, developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan have entered the era of intelligence. Industrial automation technology is developing in the direction of intelligence, networking and integration.

Since the end of 2012, the United States and other developed countries have seen a "re-industrialization" wave in the development of manufacturing industries, which has been called the signal of the third industrial revolution.

Before the United States and other developed countries placed the low-end part of their manufacturing industry in developing countries, commonly known as OEM business, relying on the high profits of finished products, developed countries enjoyed the spire of the Fortune Pyramid.

With the rising labor costs and management costs in developing countries, in December 2012, Apple CEO Cook announced that it would take part of Apple's production lines back to the United States; in addition, General Electric, Chrysler, Hewlett-Packard, Nike and other famous brands also One after another added the tide of return, one after another transferred the production line back to the United States. This all stems from the new strategy of US manufacturing - "reindustrialization."

The re-industrialization of the United States coincides with the long-term description of the third industrial revolution. It is generally believed that the re-industrialization of the United States is by no means a return to manufacturing in the traditional sense. It will lead to a new mode of production, and the universal application of smart devices with customized features will become a major trend.

In the process of re-industrialization, institutional innovation and technological innovation are intertwined. Institutional innovation is promoted by the government (which also includes the financial system), and technological innovation is promoted by emerging industries. In the development of emerging industries, high-end manufacturing equipment has become the top priority for innovation.

In March 2012, Obama proposed to invest $1 billion to create 15 "National Network of Manufacturing Innovation Centers" (NNMI) programs to revitalize the competitiveness of the US manufacturing industry. In January 2013, the Presidential Office of the United States, the National Science and Technology Commission, and the National Advanced Manufacturing Project Office jointly issued the "Network Planning for Manufacturing Innovation Centers." Since August 2012, the United States has established four manufacturing innovation centers. The related technologies and industries involved in these centers are expected to become the future direction of manufacturing.

The German government proposed the "Industry 4.0" and "interconnected factories" high-tech strategy. "Industry 4.0" was first proposed by three university professors at the 2011 Hannover Expo. The national economy of the manufacturing industry in Germany accounts for 26%. As a strategic development direction for the promotion of traditional manufacturing, the 112-page implementation proposal was submitted by the project research group to the German Federal Government in the Ministry of Education and Research, the Ministry of Economic Affairs led by the project in October 2012. The Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Interior have already allocated 200 million euros (about 1.6 billion yuan) as the first step in R&D. The “internet factory” connects the factories and the things and services inside and outside the factory through a communication network such as the Internet to build a new business model.

In addition, Japan has devoted itself to the study of artificial intelligence to solve labor shortages and support future industrial intelligence. As the world’s earliest ageing country, Japan’s intensively researched technology is the artificial intelligence industry. The first area of ​​application is the industrialized production line.

The Japanese industrial robot industry has already popularized the first and second types of industrial robots as early as the 1990s, and today it has achieved remarkable achievements on the way to the development of third and fourth types of industrial robots. Japan hopes to use the high investment in the industry to solve the problem of labor faults, reduce labor costs and support future industrial intelligence. At the same time, the government implemented a number of supporting policies such as preferential taxation, preferential loans, and tax reductions for related robot manufacturing companies.

The core technology of domestic manufacturers needs to be broken

The signals of the industrial revolution in developed countries such as Germany, Germany and Japan have sounded alarm bells for Chinese manufacturing. The adjustment of China's economic and industrial structure, rising labor costs, declining labor supply, and support from state policies are boosting the rapid growth of the industrial intelligence industry. Intelligent equipment with customized features will promote the transformation of China's manufacturing industry.

In the past ten years, benefiting from the great investment era and mechanization of engineering construction, it is an era of great development in China's construction machinery industry. In the next decade or even longer, China will usher in a new round of manpower substitution, that is, industrial intelligence, and industrial intelligence equipment will usher in the spring.

According to IFR statistics, the installed capacity of industrial robots in China reached 27,000 units in 2012, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, accounting for 14.8% of the world's installed capacity of industrial robots, ranking second only to Japan in the world. In 2012, the market for industrial robots was about 4.8 billion yuan, and the market capacity for system integration industrial robots was about 19.2 billion yuan. In 2012, the domestic industrial robot inventory exceeded 100,000 units, accounting for 8% of the world's stock, second only to Japan, the United States, Germany, and South Korea. Before 2009, the annual installed capacity of industrial robots in China was less than 10,000 units, and almost all of them came from foreign brands. The industry was in the lead-in period. After 2010, China's industrial robot industry entered a period of rapid growth.

However, from the perspective of the global robot density, although China is a large manufacturing country, the average number of robots per 10,000 people is only 21, which is lower than the global average of 55 units/ten thousand people, and far below the mature countries of the robot market such as Japan and South Korea. Future market development space is still very large. We expect that the average annual growth rate of the industry can reach 20%-30% before 2020, and the scale of industrial robots (including system integration) can reach over 100 billion in 2020.

Through comparison, we have found that the current intelligent equipment has a lot in common with the early days of the development of construction machinery ten years ago. Both of them face a broad space for development. However, they all have similar development difficulties and opportunities and challenges coexist.

Construction machinery is mainly used for infrastructure and real estate investment, and it is a fully competitive market. Industrial robots are currently used mainly in industries such as automobiles and electronics, food and beverages, home appliances, and metal processing industries. Their applications are gradually increasing. In addition to military, petrochemical and other special applications in the downstream industries, they are also purchased for the market.

At present, foreign robot manufacturing companies account for nearly 90% of China's market share. Fanuc, Yaskawa, KUKA and ABB companies together account for about 65% of the market share. China's construction machinery market is also mainly occupied by international brands such as Caterpillar and Komatsu at the initial stage of development. Starting from 2006, domestic brands such as Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion gradually emerged and successfully achieved import substitution. In the field of industrial robots, foreign brands occupy an absolute advantage during the lead-in period, and fast-growing domestic brands are expected to gradually achieve import substitution.

In the early days of development, the hydraulic components, engines, control components, and transmission systems of the core components of the construction machinery were basically imported. At present, the core component controllers, drives, servo motors, and speed reducers of industrial robots are also mainly imported. In the cost of industrial robots, the highest percentage of cost is the speed reducer, which accounts for 33% -38%, the drive and servo motor accounts for 20%-25%, the controller accounts for 10%-15%, and the robot body accounts for the proportion of the total cost. Only about 20%. At present, in addition to the main body, the core components of industrial robots in China mainly rely on imports.

In terms of controllers, drives, and servo motors, there are many foreign suppliers that are available for ontology manufacturers, and the gap between domestic products and foreign brands is also gradually narrowing. In the area of ​​reducer, international suppliers mainly include Nabtesco and Harmonic. On the precision reducer on the joints of industrial robots, the global market share of Nabtesco products of Nabtesco reached 60%, especially on medium/heavy duty robots, and its market share of RV reducers was as high as 90%. Harmonic Corporation uses harmonic speed reducers as its mainstay and has a market share of about 15% in the field of global industrial robot joint reducers. Due to the high market concentration and the weak bargaining power of domestic ontologies manufacturers, the purchase cost of the reducer can reach 3-5 times the purchase price of international giants such as FANUC, KUKA, Yaskawa, and ABB.

At present, only the Guangzhou robots company, including Guangzhou CNC, Nanjing Eston, and Xinsong robots, have independently developed the core components such as control systems, drives, and servo motors. Among the specialized core component suppliers, Googone is a leading supplier of controller technology in China, and Incogawa Technology has strong technical advantages in the field of drive and servo motors. Domestic companies that are developing RV reducers include Qinchuan Development, Shandong Shuai Ke, Nantong Zhenkang, etc. Harmonics reducer research and development institutions and companies mainly include Beijing Harmonic Drive, Suzhou Green, and Zhongji Kemei. Kemei supplies products to some domestic machine manufacturers (such as Guangzhou CNC).

Since domestic companies started late and did not master the core component technologies, there are very few companies that rely solely on autonomous technologies to research and develop industrial machinery and industrial robots. A few domestic companies’ technology sources are technological cooperation or transformation of scientific research institutes, such as Xinsong Robot and Boss shares. Zoomlion’s engineering machinery was initially transformed by the Institute.

In recent years, foreign brands are accelerating the layout of the Chinese market. On the one hand, they have brought greater competitive pressure on domestic brands. On the other hand, they have also cultivated conditions for the development of technical talents and supplier systems in China. In the past few years, "robbing people" will be an important means for domestic companies to introduce technology.

In recent years, the state and various levels of government have continuously introduced policies to support the development of the industrial robot industry and promote the development of the industry. For example, Shanghai, Kunshan, Xuzhou, Wuhu, and other cities have planned robot industrial parks and introduced various government support policies such as government guidance funds and income tax incentives. In November 2013, Zhejiang Province proposed to implement 5000 "machine substitution" projects in the next five years and to complete 500 billion yuan in technological transformation.

Possible Development Path of Intelligent Equipment in China
Engineering machinery and intelligent industrial equipment have adapted to the artificial alternative demand in different stages of development in China respectively. Both of them have many common points and differences in the early stage of development. The ten years of gold development of construction machinery can provide the current development of intelligent industrial equipment. Ideas.

First of all, different from the direct application of construction machinery, industrial robots must be integrated before the production line system can be applied, with the requirements of the secondary system integration.

Second, foreign leading brands have different attitudes toward rising domestic brands. In the early stages of the development of domestic brands of construction machinery, foreign brands such as Caterpillar and Komatsu did not pay enough attention and did not take effective measures to curb the growth of domestic brands, giving domestic brands the opportunity to grow. However, at present, the leading foreign players in the industrial robot market are accelerating the deployment of domestic production capacity in the process of the rise of domestic brands, and continuously reducing product prices to increase their competitiveness. Take 165Kg welding robots as an example, the sales price of foreign brands has dropped from about 300,000 yuan in 2010 to the current level of 22-24 million yuan. Due to the high procurement cost of the core components of domestic industrial robots, if foreign brands continue to cut prices, the profitability of domestic related companies will be suppressed for a long time.

Third, engineering machinery is a standardized product, while industrial robots are mostly customized products. Customized products are more difficult to scale up than standardized products.

Fourth, different customer groups and different sales methods. Construction machinery is mainly based on individual customers. Therefore, the distribution model is mainly used, while industrial robots are mainly targeted at business users. Therefore, in the case of smaller scale, direct sales are mainly used, but after the scale of the robot body is upgraded, distribution channels will also be required. System integrators must acquire sales orders because they use the project bidding method to obtain orders.

In addition, the current way of selling payment is different, and the sales mode of construction machinery is more diversified. The sales receipt mode of construction machinery experienced the development process of full payment - full payment + installment payment - full payment + installment payment + mortgage - full payment + installment payment + mortgage + financing lease. Currently, industrial robots are mainly based on full payment methods. There are also fewer system-integrated engineering advances.

Through the above comparison of engineering machinery and industrial intelligent equipment, we believe that the possible development path of China's intelligent equipment includes the following aspects.

System integration provides an opportunity for the development of domestic industrial robots. Due to the large differences in system integration between different downstream industries, domestic system integrators are generally better than foreign integrators in terms of industry experience, customer relationships, and individual service capabilities.

The key to improving the cost performance of robots is the key. In the short term, government support is an opportunity, and long-term dependence on core components has broken through. At present, if imported core components are used, the cost of industrial robots in our country is higher than that of foreign brands. Taking 165Kg welding robot as an example, the foreign leading production cost is about 16-18 million yuan, and the domestic sales price is about 22-24 million yuan. If the use of imported core components, the cost of domestic enterprises close to 300,000 yuan. And foreign brands are expanding domestic production capacity, lower production costs and sales prices, and enhance product competitiveness.

The main reason for the cost of domestic brands is higher than that of foreign brands is that the core components are controlled by people. While the weakness of China's robot core components is due to the influence of basic technology, on the other hand, the domestic host production scale is small, and the market demand is insufficient to support the core Parts development. The most important thing is that, like the problems faced by the core component manufacturers of construction machinery at the time, the ontologies companies are unwilling to try out domestic components in order to ensure the stability of the equipment, the low repair rate, and the customization needs of customers. Therefore, in the early stage of the development of the industry, national policy support is one of the breakthrough means to break the problem of the circulation of the core components and core components. However, in the long run, the development of domestic industrial robots also depends on technological breakthroughs in core components, reducing production costs and increasing cost performance.

In the long run, grabbing people and robbing the market will continue throughout. The introduction of talents and technology for robots and core parts and components companies will be an important means for upgrading the technology level of products. Therefore, talent competition between domestic enterprises and foreign leading companies and domestic enterprises will accompany the development of the industry in the future. For system integration companies, the market and customer channels are important competitive advantages. Rapidly seizing the market and establishing first-mover advantage in the sub-industry are particularly important.

More flexible sales model to enhance competitiveness. With the development of the industry and intensified market competition, sales models such as installment payment, mortgage sales, and financial leasing will gradually emerge in the robot market, flexible sales model, and thoughtful customer service will also become an important means to enhance market competitiveness. System integrators, such as BT, EPC, etc., that need to be funded more will also be more competitive.

The intelligent transformation of the low-end traditional manufacturing industry has a huge market space. As foreign automobile and other manufacturing industries enter the Chinese market, foreign robotics companies are positioned in the domestic market with a large-scale, high-end market, and are mainly targeted at the “tall” industry in the complete competitive market. China has a trillion-dollar low-end manufacturing market waiting to be transformed. Especially in recent years, with the difficulty of recruiting workers and the continuous decline in profitability caused by rising labor costs, these markets have extremely urgent needs to transform themselves and improve. Intelligent rate. If domestic enterprises grasp such huge economic robot market, they can quickly complete the scale accumulation.

Judging from the overseas development experience of industrial intelligent equipment, the development models of Europe, the United States and Japan are different. Both Japan and Europe have a complete industrial robot industry chain. The difference lies in the clear professional division of labor at the beginning of the development of Japanese industrial robots. The clustering effect constitutes a complete industrial robot industrial chain, while European companies prefer the whole industry chain. The development of a single company can complete a turnkey turnkey project. Different from Europe and Japan, the United States focuses mainly on system integration in the industrial robot industry chain, and robots are mainly imported from Japan and Europe.

At present, China's industrial robots are in the early stages of development, the industrial chain is gradually improving, and the two models of the integration layout of the whole industry chain and the development of upstream and downstream division of labor and cooperation are developing in parallel. We believe that the development of industrial intelligence is the basis for the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, and it will surely develop rapidly in the future. For the industrial robot market, the short-term system integration market is a major breakthrough point for domestic companies. In the long run, the development of domestic industrial robots depends on breakthroughs in core technologies to improve the cost performance.