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Multi-angle analysis of the trend of the domestic LED industry in the second half
Currently, the largest market for LED downstream applications is the lighting sector, followed by backlighting applications and displays. The scale of display applications still maintains a relatively stable and rapid growth trend. Especially with the maturity of small-pitch LED display technology, LED display applications will gradually move from outdoor large-size display applications to indoors, and the application fields will be significantly broadened. The LED industry chain mainly includes raw materials, equipment, upstream chip manufacturing, midstream LED packaging and downstream LED applications. The downstream LED applications are mainly divided into LED lighting, LED display and LED backlight applications. LED applications are an important part of the entire industry chain that can bring high added value. Currently, the largest market for LED downstream applications is the lighting sector, followed by backlighting applications and displays. The scale of display applications still maintains a relatively stable and rapid growth trend, especially with the maturity of small-pitch LED display technology, LED display applications will gradually move from outdoor large-size display applications to indoors, and the application fields will be significantly broadened, and the future is expected. In the next few years, it will maintain a very high growth rate, which will make the proportion of LED display in the entire downstream application industry chain gradually increase. Analysis of the development of the whole industry chain in the middle and lower reaches of the LED The data show that the output value of China's LED industry in the first quarter of 2016 reached 109.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and the year-on-year growth rate has accelerated. Among them, the output value of LED chips, LED packages and LED applications in the first quarter was 3.34 billion yuan, 17.62 billion yuan and 88.73 billion yuan, respectively, up 13%, 16.7% and 24.9%. The growth rate of the middle and lower reaches of the LED is obvious, and the growth rate of upstream chips and midstream packages is lower than the average growth rate of the industry, which is still affected by market price competition. Price: LED chip prices will not change much in the second half of 2016. Due to the weakening of international market demand and the slowdown of China's economic growth, the LED industry is showing homogenization of products, price competition, and mergers and acquisitions. Features. In 2015, the new capacity of mainland LED chip manufacturers continued to be released, and the proportion of oversupply in the market was as high as 20%. In the first quarter of 2016, due to the adjustment of production structure by inventory and chip companies, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry declined. In addition, the price of LED lighting chips dropped significantly last year. In the first half of this year, some corporate chip prices rebounded slightly. Although international companies such as Jingdian, Samsung and CREE have made the decision to selectively reduce production, domestic Huacan Optoelectronics, Aoyang Shunchang and other enterprises have been in a state of full production. The overall supply and demand pattern of the market has not changed, and it is still in oversupply. status. With the completion of the product structure adjustment and market demand in the second half of the year, the overall price of the chip will remain stable. In the first half of 2016, the dry photoelectric blue-green chip project was put into production, and the production capacity of the company's blue-green chip products will be gradually released in the second half of the year. In the second half of 2016, the Aoyang Shunchang Phase II LED epitaxial wafer and chip project will be completed, and the production capacity is expected to double at least. In the second half of 2016, the chip leader Sanan Optoelectronics Investment Project Xiamen Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. is gradually releasing its production capacity. The company has invested in 28 chambers of MOCVD equipment (equivalent to 56 units of 2-inch and 54-inch machines), including 12 in March. The production capacity of the chamber will be reflected in the second quarter, and the remaining equipment will be put into production as soon as possible, and the production capacity will be further expanded. In May 2016, Huacan Optoelectronics invested a total of 6 billion yuan in LED epitaxy, chip and sapphire processing projects, officially kicked off the groundbreaking ceremony in Zhejiang Yiwu Industrial Park. Technology: EMC packaging, CSP chip-level packaging has become a trend Since 2015, the competition in the packaging enterprise market has intensified, and the growth rate of corporate net profit has been declining. Enterprises have begun to focus on the research and development of LED packaging technology and market development. With the maturity of LED lighting applications, the demand for medium power LEDs has risen sharply this year, and LED packaging factories are actively introducing EMC brackets for medium and high power. EMC packaged devices are mainly infiltrated by 2-5W products in the past 2W products, and the price has accelerated down, which has already threatened traditional PPA brackets and ceramic substrates. Philips, Cree, Osram, Samsung and other international giants have successively launched flip-chip LED chips and chip-scale package products. Domestic chip company Dehao Runda also plans to use 500 million yuan to build LED chip-scale packaging projects in the second half of this year. More flip chip and chip scale package products will be launched. Market: Segmentation has become a way out for enterprises In the second half of 2016, new market segments such as small-pitch display, automotive lighting, plant lighting, and UVLED will become the rapid development of the LED industry, and quickly become the focus of the industry. In the first quarter of 2016, Liard signed orders for 284 million yuan, an increase of 155.86% compared with the same period of last year. Alto's export contract orders for LED display products in the first quarter reached 19.4 million US dollars, exceeding its 2015 annual LED display products. The sum of export contract orders. In the first quarter of 2016, Foda’s signal contributed a net profit of approximately RMB 10 million (the net profit of Foda’s signal in the first half of 2015 was only 9.95 million), a substantial increase year-on-year. At the same time, LEDs have replaced the traditional xenon lamps and halogen lamps in the market for headlights. The market segments such as small-pitch display and automotive lighting have broad prospects. Industry: Industry chain integration is further accelerated Chip manufacturing, packaging companies, product application companies are still in a stage of rapid integration. With the boom in investment expansion brought about by the pre-optimization of the LED lighting market, the chip market has expanded its production capacity. Major chip companies have begun to further expand their business operations by continuously integrating high-end LED assets in the middle and lower reaches and improving the industry chain. On March 18, 2016, Huacan Optoelectronics announced the acquisition of 100% equity of Yiwu Ruijing Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. On April 1, 2016, Sanan Optoelectronics issued the “Investment Announcement on Foreign Investment of the Subsidiary Subsidiary†and decided to acquire the compound semiconductor manufacturing company GCSHOLDINGS, INC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sanan Integration. On April 25, 2016, Dehao Runda issued an announcement. Dalian Dehao Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. and its subsidiaries, which are wholly-owned subsidiaries of the company, intend to purchase 76.33% of Dalian Zude Lighting held by Dalian Derunda and Dalian Comprehensive Software respectively. 23.67% of the total 100% equity. The LED industry is entering a transitional period from the rapid development period to the mature stage of the industry. The integration of LED chip, packaging and application segmentation industry is accelerating. In the past two years, the LED industry has been launched for dozens of times. In the second half of 2016, the LED industry Chain M&A integration will be further accelerated, and some major mergers and acquisitions will be settled.