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Ethylene plants are approaching the peak of production. Ethylene is the largest petrochemical product with a wide range of downstream products. The ethylene industry can generally be regarded as a symbol of the development of the petrochemical industry. In recent years, the ethylene industry has seen a trend of large-scale development. The typical ethylene plant scale is 500,000 to 1 million tons per year. At present, the largest single-line ethylene plant in North America is the 1.27 million tons/year plant built by Nova and Dow's joint venture. The 1.29 million tons per year ethylene plant of Jam Petrochemicals, which will be put into operation in 2008, will once again set a new record. The driving force for the construction of these large-scale installations is the scale advantages, especially the reduction of investment costs, maintenance costs and local taxes per ton of ethylene.
The large-scale ethylene plant has brought about some problems. Because the construction period of the installation is generally longer than expected, the facilities approved for construction during the period of strong demand are often put into production at the trough near the next round of the cycle. This unfavorable schedule, coupled with the tendency for large-scale crackers, often has adverse effects on the operation of ethylene and downstream derivatives, leading to a relatively long period of consolidation and consolidation in the petrochemical industry.
The United States "oil and gas magazine" survey shows that in 2006 the global ethylene production capacity increased by only 245,000 tons / year. The reason is that some projects that were supposed to be put into production in 2006, especially in Iran, have been postponed. If the announced capabilities are put into production, the increase in ethylene production capacity will mainly occur in 2007-2008.
The role of the global market will change The Middle East region will take advantage of low-cost raw materials to establish a global export center for petrochemical products. In the next 10 years, the ethylene production capacity in the Middle East will triple. According to public information, at least 27 million tons/year of new ethylene plant will be put into operation in the region before 2016, of which more than 17 million tons/year of new plant will be put into operation from 2008 to 2012.
Countries such as Iran, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia have some important ethylene projects that will be put into production in 2008. Saark's subsidiaries Sharg and Yansab will increase their ethylene production capacity by more than 1 million tons/year in Al Jubel and Yanbu in Saudi Arabia in 2008 respectively. Jubeier Chevron Phillips will also increase ethylene production capacity in Al Jubeier. Tasnee, the Sahara olefins company and Basel’s joint venture company, Saudi Ethylene and Polyethylene, plans to start a joint venture at the end of 2008. It is expected that ethylene capacity will increase by 1 million tons/year from 2008 to 2009. Petro Rabigh, a 50% joint venture between Saudi Aramco and Sumitomo Chemical, plans to complete its mega-project of US$10 billion in October 2008. In 2009, it will increase ethylene production capacity by 1.3 million tons/year. Equate will add another ethylene plant in Shuaiba, Kuwait, to increase its ethylene production capacity by 900,000 tons/year. The National Petrochemical Corporation (NPC), headquartered in Tehran, Iran, plans to complete a project in Bandar Assaluyeh, Iran, and it is expected to increase capacity by 1.32 million tons/year in 2009.
The ethylene production capacity built in the Middle East will translate into the global trade in ethylene derivatives. Ten years ago, North America was a major world export region, but it has now been caught up in the Middle East. By 2010, the Middle East will become the only net exporter of ethylene derivatives in the world, and North America will be transformed into a net importer.
During the same period, ethylene production in Asia, especially China, also rose rapidly. In 2006, the output of ethylene in China was 8.993 million tons, which was almost twice the output in 2001. In the future, China is still the fastest growing ethylene producer. From 2006 to 2011, the average annual growth rate of China’s ethylene production capacity is 16.6%. The growth rate is 12.6%. According to relevant data, China will become the second largest ethylene producer after the United States in 2011, when Saudi Arabia will be ranked third. In this way, products in the Middle East will not be absorbed by high growth rates in Asia.
Next year will usher in the peak of the current cycle of the project, construction and human resources costs, resulting in the cancellation and delay of some ethylene projects. Nova Chemicals tracked 32 new or expanded ethylene projects in 2006, mainly in the Middle East and Asia. As a result, by the middle of 2007, a total of 11 projects were announced for extension, with an average delay of approximately 9 months. Analysts believe that such delays can also be said to be good. If the production capacity of 5 million tons/year of ethylene to be put into operation is extended by 1 to 2 years, the global ethylene utilization rate will not have to fall too much. If the project is still carried out according to the current schedule, the global ethylene utilization rate may drop to 2011. 85% of the bottom line.
Mark Eramo, vice president of the olefins division of CMAI, a well-known consultancy, stated that “2008 will be a transition year for the petrochemical industry. We believe that the turning point of the cycle will appear in 2009. If Saudi Arabia’s project is followed in the second half of 2008, The timetable will be followed and the market will begin to respond.†This means that the good days for ethylene producers will extend to 2008, and 2008 will be the peak of this cycle. It is expected that the ethylene industry will enter a declining period from 2009 to 2012 and earnings will be affected.
The new era of world petrochemical industry is coming soon
“The Middle East, which is rich in raw materials, and the fast-growing Chinese and Indian economies have guided the development of the world petrochemical industry. These three regions are forming a new “Silk Road†and heralding the arrival of a new era in the world petrochemical industry.†At the second annual meeting of the Gulf Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Association held in Dubai, Mukesh D. Ambani, President of Integrity India stated in his speech that the rapid development of the petrochemical industry in China, India and the Middle East is making these regions the largest petrochemical production in the world. base.