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Since the beginning of this year, the butadiene market in the international market has shown upward trend. In the last week of February, prices in China, South Korea, and Southeast Asia all increased by 30 to 40 US dollars/ton compared with last week. Some buyers’ intentional purchase prices have risen to more than 1,200 US$/ton, compared with 900 at the end of last year. USD/ton. The rise in prices is due to tight supplies due to the fact that five butadiene units in South Korea and Japan will be overhauled from April to May this year. Another reason is that the demand for downstream users of butadiene in China is strong, pushing up the price of butadiene.
Butadiene is derived from the carbon tetra-fraction of the by-product of ethylene production from steam cracking, and is mainly used for the production of synthetic rubbers and synthetic resins. Synthetic rubber main products, such as butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, SBS elastomers are based on butadiene as the main raw material. In China's current consumption structure, butadiene is used in synthetic rubber accounting for 84%. Therefore, butadiene quotes largely depend on the synthetic rubber market. Synthetic rubber is mainly used in the automotive industry, and China's auto industry has developed rapidly. Last year, the total output reached 5.708 million units, an increase of 12.6% year-on-year. Not only does the automotive industry have a huge demand for synthetic rubber, but companies that produce hoses and tapes also need large amounts of synthetic rubber as raw materials. At present, China's economic situation is good and infrastructure investment has increased. Various major construction projects such as the Three Gorges Project, the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, the West-East Power Transmission, and the Beijing Olympic Games have all promoted the consumption of synthetic rubber. In 1995, the apparent consumption of butadiene in China was only 410,000 tons, and it increased to 1.06 million tons in 2004. It is expected to reach approximately 1.17 million tons this year and 1.44 million tons in 2010. However, in the past, China’s butadiene production capacity and output have not yet met domestic demand, and imports have been large in quantity every year. By the end of 2004, there were 19 sets of butadiene production facilities in China, with an annual production capacity of 1.02 million tons. In that year, domestic butadiene production was 870,000 tons and imports were 190,000 tons. The import volume increased by about 44% over the previous year, accounting for It has reached 18% of domestic consumption.
However, from this year, the butadiene market will face a turning point. From an international perspective, many countries and regions have excess capacity, and the butadiene industry has cast a slump. "China with a good view on the landscape" is bound to become their goal, which will have an impact on the domestic supply and demand. What is more important is that with the technological transformation of existing ethylene enterprises in China and the large-scale Sino-foreign joint venture ethylene projects completed and put into operation one after another, China's butadiene production capacity will have a relatively rapid growth. The Nanjing Yangba Integration and Shanghai SECCO projects that were put into commercial operation last year each increased the butadiene production capacity by 90,000 tons. The Guangdong Zhonghai Shell project that was put into operation earlier this year can increase the butadiene production capacity by 120,000 tons. Bluestar Chemical and Zhenhai Lian Chemicals and other companies are also building new butadiene projects. It is expected that China's butadiene production capacity will reach 1.37 million tons this year and it can already meet domestic demand. In 2010, it will reach about 1.51 million tons. From the forecasted situation, there may be oversupply.
Domestic butadiene industry has far-sighted even if it is not worried. In the face of a market transition, we can no longer simply pursue quantitative expansion, but should also focus on improving quality. It is necessary to reduce energy consumption and material consumption through the transformation of existing production facilities. Increase the development of new technologies, actively open up new sources of raw materials, and increase the level of automation of the devices, so that China's butadiene production technology will reach a new level, in order to be invincible in the fierce market competition. Ground.
Butadiene market is facing a turning point
Expert analysis pointed out that although China's butadiene is still in short supply, it has shifted to the basic balance between supply and demand.