Second and third tier cities can really become the main force of the Chinese auto market?

Are high-end luxury cars exclusive to high-income people?

Entering the 2011 Chinese car, it changed dramatically before it changed. For the future of the Chinese auto market, Sheng Sheng believes that China's auto sales will reach 30 million units annually; there are also fears that the 2011 downturn in the auto market in the last six months will cause China's autos to have a hidden excess capacity crisis; more industry analysts Think: "If the annual sales growth of the car is reduced to 10% per year, the Chinese car will die, and it will die in its own hands."

The Chinese auto market has come to a crossroads and the factors that affect the future trajectory are numerous and complex, of which the policy influence is most immediate. However, it cannot be overlooked that the impact of changes in the macro-demographic situation may be the most essential and most important. As Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, reads China’s sixth census, the reporter said: “The data is boring. The data is Ganba, we see through these data representations that these data reflect the profound changes in the economic and social development of our country’s population.” The demographic situation of China, as revealed by the sixth census, will surely affect China’s Future auto market.

Changes in China's population, "quantitative problems" have given way to "structure problems" and "quality issues." Ma Jiantang stated that “the total population of China has been effectively controlled and that China’s population growth has been at a low fertility level during the past 10 years”. “This census data reflects that China’s population, economy and social development also face some conflicts and challenges. First, the trend of an aging population is accelerating. Second, the size of the floating population continues to expand. Third, the sex ratio of the birth population is high, which will have a major impact on China's population, economy, and social development." How will the changes in China's population dominate the future of Chinese cars? What new opportunities and challenges will Chinese autos face?

Following the publication of the national census communique by the National Bureau of Statistics, various provinces and some cities have successively issued their own communiques. This report will start from these census communiques and combine the latest research on the demographic situation in China in recent years. The password of the hidden Chinese car market.

● Trend 1 The automobile market still focuses on the small car ownership in the second- and third-tier cities in the first-tier cities. The economic development is rapid. In recent years, car sales growth has also been rapid. Especially in the downturn of the auto market in the first-tier cities, it has attracted many auto investors. Vision, dealers and manufacturers have to go to layout. It is undeniable that the potential of the second-tier and third-tier markets is even that of the rural market. However, how big is this piece of cake? Second and third tier cities can really become the main force of the Chinese auto market? It is best to answer these questions from the trend of population aggregation.

Among them, there is a problem that cannot be ignored: Second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities have a large gap in their attractiveness to the population and should be treated differently. The trend of large-scale population migration in the first and second tier cities is in the ascendant, but the third and fourth tier cities do not have a strong appeal to the population, and even face the danger of population shrinkage.

First-tier cities and some of the more developed second-tier cities will continue to be hot spots for population growth. Although Beijing’s annual new account index is shrinking, Beijing has issued restrictions on real estate and auto purchases and has also erected “hukou” barriers. Although the Beijing Municipal Government has repeatedly stressed the need to strictly control the size of the population, the fact is that Beijing The size of the population has repeatedly exceeded the government’s original plan.

According to the "Beijing Urban Master Plan 2004-2020", the total population will be controlled within 18 million by 2020, but in 2010 Beijing's population has exceeded the government's red line, reaching 19.61 million. Population experts predict that the population of Beijing will reach 26 million by 2020, and may exceed 30 million by 2030. Beijing’s population carrying capacity still has room for development with the level of urban facilities and productivity.

Maybe you will not agree with this point of view. The "2011 China Undergraduate Employment Report" recently released revealed that 22.2% of the graduates of the 2007 university graduates who have been employed in "Northern Canton" have chosen to leave after 3 years. However, it should be noted that there are still more than 70% of graduates who choose to stay in the north, and the attractiveness of the first-tier cities need not be said.

Perhaps you still do not agree that the proportion of the population of Shenzhen and Guangzhou in the national population has dropped from 8.7% in 2000 to 5.7% in 2010. This seems to indicate that the population of the first-tier cities is already less attractive than before. However, another set of data is: The proportion of Beijing and Shanghai increased from 5.9% to 7.2% over the same period. The change in the proportion indicates that some of the more mobile population have moved from the Pearl River Delta to the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. They are still active in the first line. Megacity. Moreover, although the percentage of the population has risen or decreased, the absolute population of the four cities has increased by more than 25% in the past decade.

After the university graduates leave the first-tier cities, their destinations are not necessarily hometowns, nor are they three- and four-tier small and medium-sized cities, but are major cities with capital cities as the mainstay. This is what college students do, and migrant workers also favor big cities. The government’s survey of urban migrant workers’ aspirations also shows that more than 60% of migrant workers want to transfer their accounts to the “provincial municipality where the registered permanent residence is located”, “the other major cities in the province where the household registration is located” and “other major cities”, and do not want to settle To small and medium-sized cities and hometowns, and this proportion is higher in the new generation of migrant workers, close to 70%. The latest census also confirms this trend of population migration. In the past 10 years, the population growth rate of nine provincial capital cities including Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Taiyuan, Hefei, Zhengzhou, Haikou, Urumqi and Yinchuan has exceeded 20%.

● Trend 2 The middle class boosts the consumption of high-end vehicles. High-income groups have started the era of auto consumption. According to China Statistical Yearbook 2010, from the perspective of income level, the household with the highest income of 10% has 38.11 “homeownership for household cars”, and 10% of high-income families also exceed 20, but the average Less than 8 families or even lower than the same index of household income.

It is also the trend of high-income people to lead the upgrade of car consumption. The FAW-Volkswagen Audi high-level representative of China's high-end cars once said: "The middle class is the main force for future high-end car consumption."

While China has entered the ranks of major auto manufacturers and sales companies, the middle class is also rapidly rising. Although the definition of "middle class" has not achieved wide unity itself, from the perspective of income and education, these people have become a social stratum and have entered. In the period of rapid development, especially after the financial crisis, this group has become more and more aware of the identity of the “middle class”.

According to the sixth census bulletin, Beijing and Shanghai have more than 6 million and 5 million people with university or higher education respectively. According to the research findings of the "Research Group on Contemporary Social Structure Changes in China" Institute of Sociology, Institute of Sociology, 40% of big cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are middle class. A more conservative estimate is that 15.9% of Beijing and 13.2% of Shanghai's population belong to the middle class. This data comes from the study of Li Chunling, a researcher at the Institute of Sociology. Even based on the conservative ratio and current resident population estimates of Beijing and Shanghai, the middle-class population in Beijing and Shanghai have both exceeded 3 million. Li Chunling’s report also pointed out that the proportion of middle class households with annual household income of over RMB 300,000 from 2007 to 2010 in Beijing and Shanghai has increased by 16 percentage points, and more people in 2010 after the financial crisis admitted that they were middle class.

At the same time, the "2011 China Private Wealth Report" issued by a financial institution recently estimated that high-net-worth individuals in China (groups with investable assets of more than 10 million yuan such as personal financial assets and investment real estate) were already in 2010. More than 500,000 people, of which nearly half are located in five provinces and cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong. Moreover, the report predicts that the scale of China's high-net-worth population will continue to grow rapidly, reaching around 590,000 by the end of this year.

●Trend 3 car "sex" or partial "masculinity"

Man is from Mars and woman is from Venus. The preferences of men and women in purchasing and using cars are also strongly gendered. From the traditional choice, the male car owners prefer black and black gray, female owners prefer orange, red and other colors; women prefer autonomy and 5-speed automatic transmission, while men show a clear preference for 6-speed manual transmission. In the United States, Chevrolet Silverado heavy pickup, Ford F-350, Nissan Titan sports, high-power models are most favored by men; women are most fascinated by the cute Beetle, more petite SUV and unique CROSS-SUV . The different preferences of men and women, rising to a more macroscopic view of the sex structure of the population, will inevitably affect the transformation of automobile appearance, power and comfort, and China’s high birth sex ratio over the past decade may lead to a decade later in China’s automobile industry. "Sex" is "masculine".

When Ma Jiantang interpreted the sixth census data not long ago, he said: “In our preliminary survey, the sex ratio of the birth population (at 100 for girls) was 118.06.” The sex ratio at birth is also the ratio of newborn babies. It lays the foundation for the gender structure of the future population. From a global perspective, the gender ratio of birth to birth in all countries is greater than 100, and 103 to 107 are within the normal range of change, but the issue of China's sex ratio at birth was revealed as early as the publication of the results of the fourth census, reaching 111.92. At the time of the fifth census, as high as 116.86, the sex ratio at birth in the sixth census continued to climb, but it was already 1.39 lower than the 119.45 in the 2009 sample survey.

Relevant state departments have taken extensive measures on the sex ratio at birth, but it will take time before they can return to normal levels. In South Korea, which is similar to China, the sex ratio at birth has risen continuously for 5 years, and it took 15 years before it fell back to normal levels, and it may take longer for Chinese adjustments to fall back to normal.

The long-term high sex ratio at birth has already been shown in the current population age structure. According to the data released in China Statistical Yearbook 2010, the sex ratio of the 0-4 year old population in 2009 was 122.66, the sex ratio of the 5-9 year old population was 122.65, and the sex ratio of 10-14 years old was 118.27.10 years later. The population of these ages will gradually enter the age of marriage and childbirth, and will also be the most active people in buying cars and cars.