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Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, petrochemical companies have been struggling moderately. Affected by the rise in oil prices this year, the total cost of the petrochemical industry has risen, but the demand has been in a doldrums. This makes it difficult to obtain effective support for the price of petrochemical products, and the entire industry is in a cyclical downturn. So far, the production and operation of petrochemical companies is still difficult to obtain effective improvement.
The reporter visited Shu Zhaoxia, deputy chief engineer of the Economic and Technical Research Institute of Sinopec Group, and asked her to talk about the current status and future of petrochemical companies.
The petrochemical phase out of difficulties Reporter: In 2008, China's chemical product consumption for the first time had a negative growth. Compared with last year, has the market situation in the first half of this year improved?
Shu Zhaoxia: In the first half of the year, with the steady recovery of the national economy, the domestic refined oil market and the chemical market also showed signs of recovery from quarter to quarter, with accelerating growth in synthetic resin consumption.
In the first half of the year, China's crude oil processing volume was 159 million tons, which was basically the same as the previous year; crude oil imports amounted to 84.61 million tons. In the first half of the year, China's crude oil processing volume and import volume showed a monthly growth trend, of which the crude oil processing volume in June reached almost the second highest point of last year.
Reporter: Does the monthly increase in the volume of crude oil processing and imports mean a gradual recovery in the demand for refined oil products in China?
Shu Zhaoxia: From the perspective of the consumption of gasoline and kerosene in the first half of the year, the refined oil market did experience a gradual recovery. As the sales of passenger vehicles continued to be hot, the number of possessions increased steadily. At the same time, civil aviation passenger traffic steadily increased. Gasoline and kerosene both kept rising, increasing by 3.6% and 11.8% year-on-year respectively.
However, from the point of view of the entire market consumption of refined oil, China's refined oil consumption in the first half of the year has not yet returned to last year's consumption level. According to statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission, the apparent consumption of refined oil in China in the first half of the year was 97.81 million tons, and the average daily consumption was 540,400 tons, which was a 4.3% drop from the previous year. However, according to the terminal consumption calculation, the actual consumption of refined oil in the first half of the year was approximately 102.4 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. The main reason for the decrease in refined oil consumption year-on-year was that the decline in freight demand led to a decrease in the intensity of travel and use of diesel vehicles. Daily consumption of diesel oil decreased by 9.3% year-on-year.
In addition, I want to add something. In the first half of this year, the national ethylene equivalent consumption reached 12.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%. Excluding the large fluctuations in prices, the impact of factors such as the use of waste plastics, the production of calcium carbide process polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and changes in the company's inventory will have a greater impact on the calculation of ethylene equivalent consumption, and the consumption of ethylene equivalent driven by normal domestic economic growth. At 11.25 million tons, it increased by 3.5% year-on-year. The consumption of ethylene products can be seen as a barometer for the petrochemical industry. The increase in ethylene consumption is a sign that the petrochemical industry is recovering.
At the end of the year, the economy bottomed out. Reporter: Then do you agree that at present, China's petrochemical industry is gradually emerging from the bottom, and the market situation has recovered?
Shu Zhaoxia: The petrochemical industry is developing on the basis of China’s entire national economy. The development of our country’s economy and the changes in the global economic environment are also inextricably linked.
First of all, from the perspective of the international macroeconomic situation, the global employment situation has further deteriorated and the consumer and entrepreneur confidence index is still below the critical value of the economy. The housing market has not yet reached the bottom, and financial markets are still in a state of damage, indicating that the world economic recession is not over yet. However, consumer confidence has gradually increased, positive fiscal and monetary policies, and unprecedented macroeconomic stimulus programs have been launched. Some positive economic signals have emerged in the United States and some other economies, which will significantly reduce the downside risks to the world economy in the future.
We believe that in the short term, it is expected that under the support of large-scale investment driven by the large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus measures currently being implemented by the Chinese government, China’s macro economy may continue to pick up slowly in the next one or two quarters, but the economic growth rate will increase. It is unlikely that there will be significant improvement. It is expected that China's economy will achieve the goal of 8% GDP growth in 2009.
Reporter: Based on your judgment on the international and domestic macroeconomic situation, please analyze and predict the development of the petrochemical market this year for us.
Shu Zhaoxia: According to the current development of the market, we have made a preliminary analysis and judgment on the development of the petrochemical industry this year.
In the second half of 2009, the world economy will gradually stabilize, international crude oil prices will steadily increase, and the price of petrochemical products will increase. Rising prices will increase the use of scrap. At the same time, the increase in the production of calcium carbide in the domestic calcium carbide process will also result in a decrease in imports, and the replacement of inventory in the second half will cease. Therefore, it is expected that ethylene equivalent consumption will be 12.1 million tons in the second half of 2009, slightly lower than the first half of the year. The annual ethylene equivalent consumption was 24.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. If the above factors are excluded, it will increase by 5% to 6% throughout the year.
The demand for synthetic resin will reach 41.4 million tons, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. The demand for synthetic fiber will reach 24 million tons, an increase of 11% over the same period of last year. The demand for synthetic rubber will reach 2.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. The demand for synthetic fiber raw materials will reach 26.35 million tons, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year.
It is expected that the consumption of gasoline will continue to maintain a relatively high growth in the second half of the year and will increase by 3.6% year-on-year; diesel consumption may resume positive growth, and the year-on-year growth will remain flat or slightly higher; civil aviation oil will maintain steady growth, and annual growth may remain at About 10%. It is expected that the consumption of gasoline, diesel and diesel in 2009 will remain basically the same as in 2008. If the increase in production of local refineries is taken into consideration, it will increase by 2.5% to 3% year-on-year.
Overcapacity in 2015
Reporter: Can you predict the development of the petrochemical industry in the longer term, such as the next five-year plan for national economic and social development?
Shu Zhaoxia: During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China is in the "double-fast" development stage of industrialization and urbanization. According to the judgment of the domestic economic situation in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period and the analysis of the development of the downstream industry, we expect the domestic demand for synthetic resin to reach 58.4 million tons in 2015 and 5.9% during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period. The demand for synthetic fiber is 32.5 million tons, and the growth rate during the 12th Five-Year Plan is 5.2%. The demand for synthetic rubber is 3.9 million tons, an average annual increase of 5.4% during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. During the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the demand for major domestic synthetic fiber raw materials will also maintain a relatively rapid growth. The growth rate of PTA demand will reach 6.1% to 24.4 million tons; the apparent growth rate of EG will be 5.1% to about 9.8 million tons; the growth rate of PX will be 8.7% to about 12.8 million tons; the demand for AN equivalent will increase. The rate was 6.9% to 1.95 million tons.
Although the demand for petrochemical products in the domestic market will continue to grow in the next few years, the new domestic ethylene plants and downstream supporting equipment will be put into production in the next few years, together with the addition of coal-to-olefins and polymerization in new coal chemical projects. The production capacity of the material, domestic petrochemical companies will face no small competitive pressure.
In the next two years alone, Sinopec and PetroChina will add a large amount of ethylene capacity and downstream supporting equipment, including PE, PP, SM, EG, EO, SBR, and PS. By 2010, domestic ethylene capacity will reach 15 million tons / year, an increase of 50% over 2008. Between 2010 and 2015, China will also build/expand 6 sets of ethylene, adding 5.4 million tons of new production per year.
At the same time, according to the construction progress of the currently under construction and approved coal chemical projects, three or four coal chemical projects will be successively invested by 2010, with an additional ethylene capacity of 300,000 tons/year, propylene capacity of 1.24 million tons/year, and EG capacity. 200,000 tons/year, new supporting PE capacity of 300,000 tons/year and PP130 tons/year. With the rise in oil prices, such products will have a certain cost advantage and will exert pressure on petrochemical companies.
Reporter: From 2011 to 2015, will China's refined oil market also face excess capacity?
Shu Zhaoxia: From the current planning situation, China's refining capacity in 2015 will reach 580 million tons / year, when the oil demand is about 550 million tons. We are more worried that the situation of domestic oil refining capacity oversupply will gradually emerge by 2015. We forecast that oversupply of gasoline and diesel will occur in 2015: There will be a surplus of 600,000 tons of gasoline, and the largest amount of excess diesel will be about 3 million tons. Coupled with the centralized production of refinery equipment in the Middle East, China's refined oil market is facing fierce competition.
In the future, China's petrochemical industry will face not only its own overcapacity but also the impact of Middle Eastern products. The government will intensify efforts to control overcapacity and solve the problem of device layout. From now on, petrochemical production companies should begin to make structural adjustments to adapt to changes in demand structure.
However, we still believe that from a longer period of time, with the development of the country's economy and society, there is still a gap in China's refining capacity, and the future expansion, expansion and construction of new large-scale oil refining projects will continue to be the direction of China's oil refining industry.
Future petrochemical production capacity has excess worry
- Interview with Shu Zhaoxia, deputy chief engineer of the Economic and Technical Research Institute of China Petrochemical Corporation. By 2015, the situation of domestic oversupply of refinery capacity will gradually show up: There will be an excess of 600,000 tons of gasoline each year, and a surplus of about 3 million tons of diesel oil. Coupled with the centralized production of refinery equipment in the Middle East, China's refined oil market is facing fierce competition.