In 2012, which experienced a sharp decline, will the 2013 heavy truck market recover?

At the 2013 SAIC Iveco Hongyan 2013 Business Conference, the general manager of the company, Xiong Weiming, believes that the heavy truck market is expected to enter a recovery growth stage next year. The company expects to sell 700,000 heavy trucks this year, an increase of about 10% from this year's 635,000 vehicles. . However, at the same time, the State IV emission regulations will also bring great instability to the development of the industry.

Heavy truck industry presents five major features this year

In the past two years, due to the impact of the country’s macroeconomic recession, the Chinese heavy truck market has continued to decline since May 2011. From January to November in 2012, the number of heavy trucks has fallen by 29%. The dump trucks, tractors and trucks are three major details. There is no single branch of the market.

Xiong Weiming concluded that the overall decline is a major feature of the heavy-duty truck industry this year. In the first 11 months of 2012, the heavy-duty truck market sold 586,200 vehicles, a decrease of 28.9% from the same period of last year. “ Of these, dump trucks sold 203,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 35.76%; tractors sold 173,000 vehicles, a decrease of 28.2% year-on-year, while trucks sold 210,000 vehicles, a decrease of 21.4% year-on-year.”

"The second feature is the stronger effect of the stronger and the weaker Matthew." Xiong Weiming said that although the sales volume of various heavy truck companies have declined in different degrees, the enterprises with balanced models and large export sales capacity are able to resist risks. Stronger, market share has risen instead. For example, due to the heavy export volume, Sinotruk's market share increased by 0.6% in January-November this year; Shanxi Auto's export volume increased by a big margin, and its market share increased by 1.6 percentage points; Auman's product mix is ​​relatively balanced, and sales volume declines. Less than the average decline in the industry, the market share has also increased by 1.6 percentage points. The third-tier companies such as Beiben, Hualing, and Hongyan had relatively large declines due to unbalanced product structure and other reasons.

The third is that the sales volume of dump trucks is very serious, which is considered to be the hardest hit area for the heavy truck industry, especially for the 6×4 dump trucks, which has fallen by more than 45% year-on-year, and the 8×4 and 4×2 dumps have also dropped by more than double digits. .

Fourth, various companies have been looking for blue oceans, and the differentiated competition around the market segments has intensified. He said that this year's 6×2 tractors are rapidly taking up heavy weight in Henan, Hebei and Shandong. At the same time, the LNG heavy truck market has risen against the trend. Various companies have launched response products. The annual market has exceeded 10,000 vehicles and it is a foregone conclusion. “In addition, the 8×4 dump trucks are divided in severity, although the overall decline is 22%, but the development trend is very obvious, that is, the lighter the lighter and the heavier the heavier.”

Fifth, various companies have fought in overseas markets and released excess production capacity. In the first 10 months of this year, the mainstream heavy truck companies exported about 55,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase. The cost-effective advantages of China's heavy trucks have allowed it to maintain growth despite the global economic downturn, reflecting the unlimited export potential of China's heavy trucks. This makes exports one of the only two market segments that are growing this year (and one is LNG).

2013 heavy truck market will come out of the trough

Based on the rapid decline in 2011 and 2012, Xiong Weiming believes that next year's heavy truck market will not decline for the third consecutive year, but will show a modest growth trend.

Xiong Weiming analyzed that there are several favorable factors for the commercial vehicle market in 2013. First, GDP growth will be higher than 2012, reaching about 8%, which is slightly higher than that in 2012. “Most organizations forecast that China’s GDP growth rate will be around 7.7% this year, and the growth rate will rebound somewhat next year. This is a good thing for the heavy truck market. In 2013, we expect the growth of infrastructure investment and real estate investment will reach 15% This will increase the demand for steel, cement, coal, and other industrial products, improve the transportation environment, and promote the renewal of old cars. Moreover, in 2013, the economic situation in the internationally advanced economies will improve, and China's import and export will improve. Slight recovery, which in turn drove port transportation and the recovery of foreign cargo throughput."

Xiong Weiming also believes that heavy-duty truck dealers generally run at a loss in 2012. After one year's stocks are digested, inventory is currently at a low level. After the market stabilizes in 2013, dealers will have more restocking needs.

At the same time, he also mentioned that the Fourth National Emission Standard, which was imposed on July 1 next year, is likely to be one of the few unfavorable factors in 2013. "The upgrade of emission regulations will bring about an increase in the cost of bicycles from 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, which will have an inhibitory effect and negative impact on the new car market. As the Fourth National Regulations will be implemented in the second half of next year, there will be some early release demand in the first half of next year. According to historical rules, the sales volume of heavy trucks in the second half of the year will not be as good as that of the first half of the year, coupled with the early release of the National IV, and the sales volume in the second half will be significantly lower.”

“Although, overall, the heavy-duty truck market in 2012 has already fallen to the lowest level, and there will certainly be more favorable factors than unfavorable factors next year. Under the combined effect of these factors, the heavy-duty truck market is expected to sell 700,000 vehicles next year, an increase from the same period of last year. About 10%, dump truck demand is expected to reach 245,000 units, an increase of 10% year-on-year; tractor demand is expected to reach 215,000 units, an increase of 13% year-on-year; demand for trucks and special vehicles is expected to reach 240,000 units, an increase of 7% year-on-year.” Xiong Weiming’s judgment Say.

Based on the forecast for the growth rate of the heavy truck market next year, Xiong Weiming also proposed the mission objectives of SAIC Iveco Hongyan in 2013. "In 2013, the sales target of Shanghai Red was 30,000, which was a 76% increase from 17,000 in 2012." He told reporters, "Only by running faster than the market can we increase market share and achieve more ."

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