On November 9, 2011, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the WEO (World Energy Outlook) of this year in London, England. It predicts that the global passenger car inventory will reach 1.7 billion by 2035. Vehicle.

I. Predicting Total Occupancy and Preservation Density in 2035 WEO is the flagship publication of the International Energy Agency's IEA. This year's WEO analyzes and judges the current situation of energy use and emissions and points out that if the policy direction is not changed in time, the world will fall into the quagmire of environmental hazards, lack of resources, and high carbon and high energy consumption systems. WEO thinks that it is not too late to act now, but the window of opportunity is slowly closing.

The car has become one of the elements of WEO analysis. It predicts that by 2035, the total number of passenger vehicles in the world will more than double to reach 1.7 billion vehicles. WEO forecasts that the main growth in car sales comes from emerging markets.

The vehicle population density will also increase significantly. According to the regional market, the United States will increase from 700 units per 1,000 people in 2010 to 725 units per 1,000 people in 2035; Europe will increase from 480 units per 1,000 people in 2010. 570 vehicles per 1,000 people in 2035; China's growth rate will increase from 30 vehicles per 1,000 people in 2010 to 300 vehicles per 1,000 people in 2035; India will increase from 12 vehicles per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2035. 100 vehicles per 1,000 people; the Middle East increased from 90 vehicles per 1,000 people in 2010 to 230 vehicles per 1,000 people in 2035.

Due to the increase in the total number of automobiles, the consumption of petroleum will increase from 87 million barrels per day in 2010 to 99.9 million barrels per day in 2035. Although alternative energy sources such as hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles can relieve pressure, new energy vehicles need time to enter the market.

II. Forecast Comparison of Other Institutions and Individuals WEO of the World Energy Outlook is expected to be relatively conservative among some scholars, which is in line with the current trend of stoppage of growth or decline in the auto market in many regions.

Last September, Edward Prescott, the 2004 Nobel Prize winner in economics and Fed economist, came to Chengdu to attend the Global Automotive Forum. During the period, it forecasted China's annual auto production/sales volume and China's per capita car ownership in 2030.

Prescott believes that the production of Chinese cars will be commensurate with the demand. “Perhaps not predicting that much, but it will continue to be extraordinary growth. By 2030, China’s auto production and sales will reach an astonishing 75 million vehicles, and then China will Become the world's largest car manufacturing country. China's per capita car ownership will reach 800 people, reaching the level before the United States or higher."

In addition, on the current total car ownership, the American automobile industry magazine Wardsauto announced on August 16 this year that as of the date of this day, the total occupancy of all kinds of globally used cars, including cars, trucks, and buses, has exceeded 1 billion. , China's per capita car ownership ratio is 1.. 17.2.