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First, the fluctuation of oil prices in the international market will continue to be the direct cause of changes in petrochemical product prices. In December, the weather in the northern hemisphere will be even colder, heating oil will continue to rise, and oil demand may increase significantly in the short term, driving oil prices to fluctuate. However, as heating oil accounts for only a small part of oil consumption, the increase in demand is not enough to fundamentally change the pace of global oil demand growth slowdown. Even if crude oil prices in the international market fluctuate, the volatility will not be too great. Therefore, the overall price of international and domestic petrochemical products will be based on smooth operation.
Second, the investment growth of some downstream enterprises is fast, and the production capacity continues to increase. The demand for petrochemical products will continue to grow. In the first 10 months of this year, the investment in fixed assets of the domestic rubber products and plastic products industries increased by 76.2% and 52.1%, respectively, which were higher than the national fixed asset investment growth rate. As these investments are gradually converted into production capacity, the demand for petrochemical products will further increase, which will also have a certain role in supporting the price of petrochemical products.
Third, the price changes of related products will also affect the future price trend of petrochemical products. Since the second half of this year, international and domestic natural rubber prices have dropped significantly, which has driven the price of synthetic rubber down. In late November, the price of butadiene rubber has fallen by about RMB 900/ton compared with the highest price this year. There are still many uncertainties as to how natural rubber prices will change in the later period, such as the climate of major rubber-producing countries, as well as production and export conditions. Natural rubber price changes will continue to have a significant impact on the future price trend of synthetic rubber.
In addition, the arrival of winter, some petrochemical products downstream companies into the production off-season, the reduction in demand will also have a certain impact on the petrochemical products trading and price changes.
In November, major petrochemical products continued to decline slightly. The average prices of polyethylene, polypropylene, polyester chips, and butadiene rubber in November were 12,857 yuan/ton, 12,543 yuan/ton, 11,501 yuan/ton, and 16,714 yuan/month respectively. Ton, compared with October, they fell by 1.79%, 2.15%, 2.20%, and 1.60%, respectively, up 14.37%, 16.28%, 6.52%, and 13.06% compared with the same period of last year. The average price of PVC in November was 7,247 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 2.09% compared with October and a decrease of 1.71% compared with the same period of last year.
From a regional point of view, the prices of petrochemical products in East China and Northwest China fell more sharply than in October. Prices of polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyvinyl chloride in East China decreased by 1.21%, 1.57%, and 3.06%, respectively, compared with October. The prices of polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polyester chips in the northwestern region decreased by 1.81%, 1.43%, 4.76%, and 3.94%, respectively, from those in October. Prices of petrochemical products in North China, Northeast China, and Central South China were relatively stable, and the price drop of various petrochemical products was basically below 1%.
In terms of ten days, in early November, the prices of major petrochemical products in all regions generally declined slightly; however, in the middle of the year, the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene rebounded in some regions, but the recovery rate was modest, and the national average price continued to fall slightly; In some regions, the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene continued to rise. Among them, the price of polypropylene rebounded a lot, which led to a slight rebound in the average price of polypropylene in China.
The factors affecting the price changes of petrochemical products in November mainly include the following aspects:
First, changes in the price of oil in the international market are the main factors affecting the fluctuation of petrochemical products. In the first half of November, the international oil market continued its stable operation in October. The spot price of WTI crude oil in New York remained at 58-61 US dollars per barrel. On November 16th, due to the market's expectation that oil prices will continue to fall in the later period, it began to sell a lot of contracts for delivery in recent months. The price of oil fell sharply. On the 17th, the spot price of New York's WTI crude oil fell to 55.9 US dollars/barrel, which was the lowest since the second half of last year. Compared with the highest of US$77.05/barrel at the beginning of August this year, it has dropped by 37.84%. Therefore, in the first half of November, the prices of domestic petrochemical products showed a trend of steady decline. Since November 20th, due to the decline of US oil inventories and the impact of stronger cold air in North America, the international market oil began to gradually increase. The spot price of WTI crude oil in New York rose from US$56.42 per barrel on the 20th to US$63.4 on the end of the month. It reached 12.4%. Some petrochemical products in China have also seen some increase in prices.
Second, the production of downstream companies also has a big impact on the sales price of petrochemical products. In the fourth quarter, the production growth rate of some domestic petrochemical downstream companies declined, among which, the year-on-year growth rates of chemical fiber, tires and plastic products in October were 11.7%, 14.1%, and 11.5%, respectively, and the rate of increase decreased compared with the first three quarters. 1.5 percentage points, 4.1 percentage points, and 8.9 percentage points. The decline in production growth of downstream companies has had a major impact on the demand for petrochemical products and market transactions. At the same time, in October, the overall increase in the purchase price of domestic raw materials and the ex-factory prices of industrial products was 5.55% and 2.90%, respectively, which was a drop of 1.32 percentage points and 0.55 percentage points from the previous month, which also affected the extent to some extent. Petrochemical price.
Third, the decline in the price of petrochemical products in the international market has also affected the price of domestic petrochemical products to some extent. In the major international petrochemical market in November, the prices of low-density polyethylene, styrene, polypropylene, and ABS resin were 1,731 US$/ton, 13,11 USD/ton, 1,391 USD/ton, and 1,583 USD/ton, respectively, compared with the previous month. Decreased by 6.45%, 1.17%, 0.32%, and 0.11% respectively. As imported petrochemical products account for a relatively large proportion of domestic consumption, the price of domestic petrochemical products has also declined due to the decline in the price of petrochemical products in the international market.
It is expected that the price of domestic petrochemical products will tend to stabilize in the later period
Affected by the slowdown in global economic growth and the fact that oil prices remained flat in October, domestic petrochemical prices continued to fall slightly from high levels in November. It is expected that the price of domestic petrochemical products will tend to stabilize in the later period.