Rainstorms in Queensland affect the nerves of the Chinese coal market

【Abstract】With the increasing import of coal in China, a heavy rain in Queensland has also become one of the important factors affecting the domestic coal price trend.

A heavy rain in Queensland, Australia, has affected the nerves of the Chinese coal market.

According to the British "Financial Times" report, this heavy rain caused the interruption of local coal mine exports, and may lead to global coal prices. Several companies such as British and American Resources Group announced that the infrastructure of their five mines in Queensland has been paralyzed, and these mine facilities account for half of the global coking coal production capacity. At the same time, with the increasing import of coal in China, a heavy rain in Queensland has also become one of the important factors affecting the domestic coal price trend.

In the global coking coal trade, Australia accounts for almost two-thirds of the total, and Queensland is the world’s largest seaborne coal export base. The state’s coal mine production accounts for 25% of Australia’s annual production. However, in Queensland after the heavy rain, almost all coal mines were closed due to floods. Even if coking coal was shipped to the port, it was too wet to be packed.

Tens of thousands of miles away, China is also watching this intensely. Since China changed from a coal exporter to a net importer in 2009, coal-producing countries such as Australia and Indonesia have become major importers of coal in China.

Customs data show that from January to November 2010, cumulative total imports of all types of coal exceeded 130 million tons, an increase of 38.4% over 2009, mainly from Indonesia and Australia.

CITIC Securities analyst Luo Zeting believes that due to the impact of the U.S. economy, liquidity, the decline in crude oil reserves and the rapid cooling of energy demand due to severe cold in the European region have driven the continuous rise in energy prices. Therefore, domestic coal is expected to continue to develop in the first quarter of this year.

He pointed out that in the face of the global environment of rising energy prices, the domestic coal thermal coal prices did not rise and fell, mainly due to the control of the national policy. With the approaching Spring Festival, the output of coal mines will drop significantly, the supply of coal will fall, the coal consumption of power plants will increase, and the demand for coal will rise again. Therefore, the coal thermal coal prices will be limited in the later period.

The president of Peabody Energy Company once pointed out that "China's demand for coal will continue to grow for some time."

Some experts believe that as domestic coal prices are increasingly linked to the international community, China will gradually lose a large amount of impetus for importing coal during the 12th Five-Year Plan period; for several years since 2011, it will become a turning point for coal imports.

Li Xuegang, general manager of Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Market, said in an interview with the “First Financial Daily” that the coal import trend during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will not necessarily maintain a sustained and substantial upward trend in previous years, but is likely to remain stable in the near-term; and From a long-term perspective of 2 to 3 years, China's coal imports may also show a downward trend.

Li Xuegang also pointed out that at present, the coal of major Chinese traditional importing countries such as South Africa, Australia and Vietnam have already stopped entering the Chinese market because of the increase in prices. Indonesia's coal has always been of poor quality and low prices, but even so it has not been small. Therefore, with the convergence of prices, the advantages will be gradually lost.

Li Chaolin, an expert from the China Coal Industry Association, said that at present, international coal production is more than 7 billion tons, while China's production has 3.3 to 3.5 billion tons. In the coming years, with the continuous reorganization and concentration of domestic coal companies, the output will further increase.

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