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Since mid-December, the price trend in the calcium carbide market has undergone polarization. On the one hand, in areas where PVC utilization rates are relatively low, calcium carbide usage is relatively low, and areas with high direct commodity prices in the previous period, the price of calcium carbide to factory prices has continued to decline. The rate ranged from 200 to 300 yuan (t price, the same below); On the other hand, in areas where the amount of calcium carbide is relatively stable or is used in large quantities, calcium carbide prices remain firm for the time being, taking into account factors such as low inventory levels. The ex-factory price of enterprises in the main production areas of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and Shaanxi has been adjusted, and the center of gravity has shifted downwards. At present, the northwest region offers 4100 ~ 4350 yuan; North China offer 4350 ~ 4550 yuan; Northeast offer 4470 ~ 4650 yuan; Central China offer 4450 ~ 4600 yuan; East China offer 4700 ~ 4800 yuan; southwest offer 4200 ~ 4600 yuan; South China offers 4700-4800 yuan.
The reporter learned from the interview that there are several reasons why the price of calcium carbide has entered the downtrend channel:
——The overall supply of calcium carbide has gradually recovered. At the end of the year, the enterprises that were affected by the “energy saving and emission reductionâ€, limited production, and production cuts in the previous period had already started to resume production and increased the market supply. Ningxia Wuzhong and Pingluo regions, Inner Mongolia Erdos, Ulanqab region, and some calcium carbide manufacturers in Shaanxi resumed production, but the start-up load was maintained at a relatively low level.
——Downstream PVC market continued to slump Domestic PVC market price broke through 9,000 yuan mark in mid-November, after mainstream quoted price reached 8850-8900 yuan, the combination of multiple factors such as huge cost pressure and sluggish downstream demand of PVC began to fall, and the market became weak afterwards. It continued to decline until mid-December shipment prices fell below 8,000 yuan. Right now, the ex-factory price of the company is mainly based on market demand. At present, the operating rate of domestic PVC manufacturing companies is mostly maintained at 56 percent, and many large-scale enterprises are still in production. Such as Xinjiang Tianye 860,000 tons of PVC plant operating rate in Wuliucheng, Yibin Tianyuan PVC plant operating rate of about 80%, Shandong Haihua PVC plant operating rate of about 60%, Inner Mongolia Wuhai 300,000 tons of PVC plant operating rate of five Cheng, Inner Mongolia Linhai PVC plant is still shutting down and maintenance, Hunan Zhuhua 100,000 tons / year old PVC plant continued to stop, its 200,000 tons / year new plant operating rate of about 70%, Inner Mongolia Yili 400,000 tons PVC plant and Sichuan Jinlu PVC production plant started at 60%. At present, the price of PVC continues to decline, and the price of liquid chlorine is at a low level. The overall loss of chlor-alkali enterprises is serious, and the amount of calcium carbide purchased by enterprises in the future will continue to decrease.
——Political expectation factors exacerbated market sentiment. Xie Zhenhua, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out at a recent forum that after preliminary estimation, the energy consumption per unit of GDP in the first three quarters of the year in China fell by about 3% year-on-year. “11th Five-Year Plan†Energy-saving goals are expected to be achieved on schedule, and emission reduction targets have been completed in advance. The main driving force for maintaining the skyrocketing price of calcium carbide in the early period was related to energy-saving and emission-reduction measures. The expectation of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies and measures is expected to be loosened or completely lifted soon. This will enable companies and businesses to consider whether they are currently in parking or restricted production. A large number of calcium carbide companies may be about to resume driving, and the recovery of calcium carbide production will inevitably result in a drop in the price of calcium carbide. Therefore, the procurement of PVC enterprises began to maintain a wait-and-see attitude and adopt a natural attitude of arrival. In the past, high-priced suppliers would no longer exist. High calcium carbide price receivers and companies with relatively large stocks of calcium carbide in the early stages of shipment have already started to play a significant role in the price of the piezoelectric stone. This situation will continue to exist in the future market.
Although the current downtrend channel in the calcium carbide market has been opened and the price of calcium carbide has dropped, many people in the calcium carbide and chlor-alkali industry do not believe that the market will “fall†or “fall to the endâ€. According to their analysis, in the later period, the price of coke in the upper reaches of calcium carbide is firm, and transport logistics in the winter and holidays are tense. There are also some factors that may not be too loose for the country's “12th Five-Year†start-up energy-saving and emission reduction policy factors. The intensity of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies in various regions is not clear. And so on will become a good factor supporting the stoppage of the calcium carbide market. With the global economy gradually picking up, the industry expects that oil prices will rise to more than US$100/barrel in the first half of 2011, so coal and coke will also go up and run high. The cost of calcium carbide will support its price will not return. Low point. At the same time near the end of the year, due to concerns about ice and snow fog around the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, the traffic congestion in the main production area of ​​calcium carbide is serious, the logistics is still poor, the weather is cold, most of the calcium carbide stoves that have been parked are difficult to open, and the PVC companies are stocking before the Spring Festival. Supported by other factors, the lower price of calcium carbide is still limited.
The downlink channel of calcium carbide market has opened
After the domestic calcium carbide market experienced a continuous rise of up to four months from July, it started at the middle of this month, and the overall price was consolidating at a high level and gradually fell back. At present, the supply and demand sides in some regions are still in a stalemate, and the suppliers’ prices are striving for stability, but it is still difficult to stop the general trend of price decline in most regions. The industry generally believes that the downtrend channel for the calcium carbide market has opened up, and the negative factors for the market outlook will be more, or will be narrowed down and the market downturn will continue. This is the reporter learned from the major calcium carbide and chlor-alkali enterprises across the country on December 14th.