·2016 new energy vehicle leading transformation drama

In the domestic auto company for nearly 20 years, Lao Huang had some troubles in 2015. He had already achieved the department's senior manager. In June, he was notified by the company to reduce his salary and reduce his salary. Due to the industry downturn, enterprises can only control manpower expenses in order to save costs. Lao Huang, who had already expired the contract, did not accept such an arrangement, so he chose to take the initiative and the company to cancel the contract.

In the first half of 2015, there was a rare decline in production and sales in the Chinese auto market. Old Huang is just one of the victims. Under the Great Depression, both state-owned enterprises and foreign-invested companies in China sold a large number of layoffs, and dealer inventory increased substantially. Even the “closed shop tide” appeared.

At the end of September, the government decided to halve the vehicle purchase tax on the purchase of 1.6-liter and below-displacement passenger cars. Stimulated by preferential policies, the Chinese auto market began to rebound in October, and in November set a record high monthly production and sales. It is worth mentioning that when the traditional automobile market is struggling, the new energy vehicle market has begun to rise, and in the first 11 months of 2015, it achieved a remarkable result of a four-fold increase in output. Experts predict that under the multiple benefits of the policy and market environment, the new energy vehicle industry is expected to further erupt in 2016, and China's auto market will also enter an important transition period.

Cold-flow overcapacity sales fell, the car market entered the "new normal"

The “new normal” is undoubtedly a key word for the Chinese economy in the past two years. After the automotive industry experienced considerable growth in 2014, it also entered the “new normal” in 2015, but its performance was more intense, with a rare The Great Depression opened for years.

In May, Mr. He, the owner of Beijing, came to a 4S shop he frequented to do routine maintenance of the vehicle. He was surprised to find that he had not come for a few months. He had already gone to the building, and the previous 4S shop had closed.

The 4S shop appeared "retreat shop tide", which caused a panic in the domestic auto industry at that time. "There is no way to close the store, and many of the remaining ones are also struggling to support." According to the sales manager of a steam supermarket 4S store in Changchun, he told the reporter of the Economic Information Daily that he has 10 years of experience in the industry. It was the first time I saw such a situation. Only 300 vehicles can be sold per month. The inventory pressure is huge. The company is trying to cut prices, but it faces a “price war” from other dealers.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, throughout the first half of 2015, national automobile production and sales fell by nearly 7 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. At the same time that sales have fallen sharply, the dilemma of overcapacity in cars is particularly evident. In the first 11 months of 2015, the sales volume of China's auto industry reached 21,786,600 units. It is estimated that the annual sales volume is expected to be close to 25 million units, while the total capacity of major domestic auto manufacturers has already exceeded 30 million units.

It is still difficult to judge whether the Chinese auto market has reached the turning point, but it has become an established fact to enter the new normal of “micro-growth”. At the monthly information conference of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers held recently, Dong Yang, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Automobile Association, predicted that the growth rate of the automobile market should be around 3% this year. In the view of Jia Xinguang, executive director of the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the next few years, the auto market may face a growth rate of less than 3%, and even zero growth and negative growth will occur.

Breakthrough policy to crack the dilemma, car sales are now reversed

Under the cold market, the policy has once again become the "key man" to save the situation. On September 29, the State Council issued a policy on the reduction of the purchase tax for passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below. The products with a displacement of less than 1.6 liters are the absolute main models of the automobile market. Under the promotion of this policy, the national automobile sales in October and November have been reversed and achieved substantial growth.

This is not the first time the government has taken support actions against the auto market. As early as 2009, the government once implemented a purchase tax reduction policy for vehicles with a displacement of less than 1.6 liters, and brought a blowout in the automobile market. In that year, the national automobile sales increased by 52.93%. After the launch of the policy, it was only in a single month in November that passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less sold 1,556,600 units, an increase of 16.5% from the previous month. In October and November, the contribution of this part of the passenger car to the year-on-year sales growth of the overall passenger car reached 83%.

It is worth mentioning that, at the same time as the introduction of the traditional car model purchase tax reduction policy, the New Deal at the end of September also proposed support for research and development of power batteries, fuel cell vehicles, etc., to carry out demonstration projects of intelligent networked vehicles, and implement new energy sources for enterprises and institutions. Regarding the proportion of automobiles, local governments may not impose restrictions or purchase restrictions on new energy vehicles.

Since 2015, China’s support policies for new energy vehicles have been “existing”. According to the incomplete statistics of the "Economic Information Daily" reporters, this year, the central government and various departments have launched 17 national-level policies, including the introduction of new energy vehicle subsidy policies during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, and the exemption of new energy vehicles and ships. Taxes, as well as the issuance of "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure".

Under the strong promotion of the country, under the overall downturn of the auto market in 2015, the new energy auto industry has risen against the market. From January to November 2015, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles totaled 279,200 units, a four-fold increase over the same period last year, accounting for 1.28% of the cumulative production of traditional vehicles. In terms of sales volume, from January to October 2015, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 171,145 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 times, which accounted for 0.88% of the total market sales. According to forecasts, China’s new energy vehicle sales will exceed 220,000 this year, and it is expected to rank first in the global sales of new energy vehicles.

Looking forward to the growth of new energy vehicles, accelerating the transformation of the automotive industry

It is widely expected in the industry that as the first year of the “13th Five-Year Plan”, new energy vehicles will see a larger growth in 2016, and the traditional fuel vehicle market will show a completely different trend. The Chinese auto market will also enter the important transformation. historical period.

In fact, under the clear guidance of the policy, the car companies that are the protagonists of the market are increasingly unified in the investment direction of future products, and they have added new energy product research and development. In 2015 alone, SAIC, Great Wall, Changan and other independent brands have already Funds are raised in the capital market for the development of new energy vehicles, and the industry expects this trend to be further exacerbated. As the market base and national policies in 2016 will be upgraded and improved on a larger scale, the new energy vehicle market will show a higher growth rate.

The confidence of enterprises is also rising. The country's cumulative total sales target for new energy vehicles will reach 5 million by 2020, and the current eight major Chinese auto companies have announced their own targets have exceeded 3.2 million. According to Wang Kefeng, deputy general manager of Beiqi New Energy and dean of the Product Engineering Institute, told the reporter of the Economic Information Daily that in 2016 the company plans to sell 55,000 new energy vehicles with a target capacity of 100,000.

Xu Yanhua, deputy secretary-general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said: "From the current development situation, there is no suspense in the status of China's new energy vehicle market in the world." However, many experts have suggested that new energy vehicles will be promoted from the present to the future. The real popularity of the need to overcome the supporting applications of charging facilities, master the core "three power" technology and other multiple problems.

Just a few days ago, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, the National Standards Commission, the United Nations Energy Bureau, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and other departments issued a new revised electric vehicle charging interface and communication protocol five national standards, the safety and compatibility of electric vehicle charging The problem has been improved. The industry expects that the announcement of the national standard for charging will bring significant opportunities for the new energy vehicle charging facilities industry. According to Wu Hui, research director of CCID Consulting Co., Ltd., from the perspective of market size, the estimated value of charging stations will be higher in the future, and the revenue model will also achieve new innovations. In the short term, the domestic construction peak of a charging station or charging pile will be ushered in.

In addition, many experts suggest that a long-term mechanism needs to be established to promote the healthy development of the new energy vehicle industry. On the one hand, the new energy automobile industry should focus on technological innovation and continuously optimize the user's travel experience; on the other hand, the public policy to promote the development of the new energy automobile industry should be sustainable, and timely improve and improve according to the actual situation.

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