On December 13, 2010, Roman Mathyssek, Director of Global Truck Research Consulting at IHS Automotive, said at the 2010 Heavy Vehicle International Forum that 2010 is the peak of China's truck market and it is difficult to surpass it for a long time. China's truck market will begin to decline in 2011, and this decline will bring about the upgrading of China's truck industry and the merger and reorganization of truck companies.

Roman Mathyssek expects sales in 2010 to account for 50% of global truck sales. Starting in 2011, China's truck market demand will decline.

Roman Mathyssek believes that the peak of China's truck market in 2010 is determined by the following factors: First, due to the structural changes in transportation demand, the sales volume of heavy trucks increased linearly between 2005 and 2010 and reached the highest; Second, benefit from China’s continued cities. As a result of the increase in sales, the sales volume of China Cards increased. Finally, due to the policy benefit of the old-for-new trade (the maximum subsidy of RMB 18,000) and the economic growth environment in China, the demand peak in 2010.

After 2010, China's truck market will enter the transition period of models and the high incidence of mergers and reorganizations, leading to the industry down.

Transformation of the model - Roman Mathyssek divided trucks into three categories: Budget trucks, Advanced trucks, which are transitions from economical trucks to high-end trucks, and High-end trucks. He believes that from 2011 to 2020, the Chinese truck market will transition from economic trucks to mid-range trucks, and it is expected that changes in customer demand, especially during the next seven years, will prompt a surge in demand for mid-range trucks. During this period of time, high-end trucks are still only niche demand, and the decade from 2021 to 2030 is a potential growth period for high-end trucks.

The merger and reorganization - Roman Mathyssek believes that since 2011, due to China's economic risk factors increase and policy incentives weakened, China's truck market is likely to decline, along with the recession comes from the merger and reorganization of Chinese truck companies. Local truck companies and SMEs have become important targets for integration. As a result of mergers and reorganizations, only about 5 major Chinese heavy truck groups have maintained their vitality for a long time. This “five” will also be integrated in the global truck industry. Plays an important role.

Roman Mathyssek said that in combination with the above reasons, 2010 is likely to become the peak year of China's truck market. However, due to the huge Chinese market and the emerging market for trucks, China will still be the world's largest truck market by 2015. In the global truck market structure, more market share will shift from western markets to emerging markets.

IHS is a leading global provider of key information, products, solutions and services to customers in more than 100 countries and regions, serving government agencies and companies in six core industries. In 1996, IHS established a subsidiary in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, dedicated to providing key technical information, decision support tools and related services from more than 370 standards development organizations (SDOs) worldwide to the Chinese market.