After the appearance of the beach on the beach, the new energy car made headlines again. One is the announcement by the National Government Network about the subsidy for the subsidy of new energy vehicles, and the other is that the new energy vehicle promotion demonstration city will usher in the four major committees.
On April 29th, the National Government Network announced the “Notice on the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2016-2020” jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission. This policy publicized 2016. The new energy vehicle subsidy rules and the future fallback range of 20% and 40% in 2017-2018 and 2019-2020.
On May 5th, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries jointly issued the "Notice on Launching Urban Appraisal Work for New Energy Vehicles Promotion and Application", and began to investigate the promotion of new energy vehicles from May 15. The focus of the examination is on the number of new energy vehicles to be promoted and applied in various cities, and the construction of charging facilities.
The policy should not wean the new energy vehicles, and some new energy vehicles can promote the city through the college entrance examination, and various disputes are extremely lively. In fact, no matter whether it is weaning or a big test, the core of the two reports should be true – are new energy vehicles competitive?
According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, the performance of new energy vehicles in the first quarter of 2015 was exceptionally eye-catching and showed a rapid growth trend. In the first quarter, new energy vehicles produced 27,271 units and sold 26,581 units, up 2.9 times and 2.8 times respectively. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 16,113 and 15,405 respectively, up 3.8 times and 3.7 times respectively. The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 11,158 and 11,176 respectively, up 2.1 times year-on-year. At this rate, China will become the world's largest new energy vehicle market in 2015.
However, there are still many hidden concerns behind the scene of a thriving scene. New energy vehicles have not made substantial breakthroughs on the current development path. The rapid growth is still largely dependent on the influence of policies, car subsidies, free-shake, and unlimited, just under the restriction of purchases, they need to be diverted to new energy vehicles. In addition, last year was considered by the industry to be the first year of China's new energy vehicle development, a large influx of investment, frequent government favorable policies and the improvement of some charging facilities. The cumulative effect of these comprehensive factors began to manifest in 2015. New energy vehicles have only seen the current prosperity. The question is: What is the high-speed growth of new energy vehicles, which is driven by their own product strength?
In fact, when a product needs subsidies, it generally indicates that it is not competitive enough. Insufficient competitiveness is sometimes too high a price, sometimes it is a function or performance that does not meet the demand. Unfortunately, for new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, there are two reasons for this. Take the Kaichen morning wind launched in the domestic market as an example. The car is based on the global pure electric vehicle sales champion Nissan Leaf. The official minimum guide price is 267,800, and the official minimum price of the hatchback of the same class is 105,300. In the absence of subsidies, the cost of electric vehicles is about 160,000 higher than that of ordinary fuel vehicles. In fact, this phenomenon is not a case. At present, the average price of domestic pure electric vehicles is more than 250,000 yuan, and the cost is high, at least from the price market competitiveness. At present, the state subsidies Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Dalian, Wuhan and other nine major cities are 47,500 yuan. Local subsidies vary from city to city, ranging from 47,500 yuan to 50,000 yuan. Coupled with free licensing, exemption from taxation and other benefits, for consumers, the purchase price of new energy vehicles is close to or even lower than ordinary fuel vehicles. However, after the 2017, when the subsidies fell sharply, the price weakness of the day after tomorrow was highlighted, can high-speed growth be maintained?
The competitive disadvantage of price can also be compensated by government subsidies. The biggest reason that affects user choice is function, that is, slow charging and short battery life. At present, the cruising range of the mainstream pure electric vehicles is basically less than 200 kilometers. If you consider the round-trip, the mileage will be reduced to half. Take the daily car demand of an ordinary office worker as an example, mainly including commuter transportation, after-hours dining, shopping, entertainment, communication, etc., weekends, holiday vacations, visiting relatives, etc., other long-distance travel needs. From this, it can be analyzed that the short-distance travel accounts for the vast majority, and also in the urban area, the electric vehicle can be fully satisfied. However, for holiday vacations, low-frequency but high-impact needs such as visiting relatives cannot be completed under the current circumstances. The purpose of consumers buying cars is because of the expansion of the radius of life and the increase in freedom. The mileage anxiety associated with the electric car is like a spell, which makes the owner feel awkward. There is a view that the problem of the cruising range of electric vehicles can be solved through the construction of large-scale charging stations. If the owner can easily charge the electricity, then the mileage anxiety will not break. However, the construction cost of charging piles is currently high, and the current utilization rate is very low, and private capital is still hesitating to wait and see. The construction of large-scale charging stations has not yet started, battery technology has not yet broken, and the cloud of mileage anxiety has not been dispelled.
New energy vehicles are flawed, both in terms of price and performance. It is an indisputable fact that new energy vehicles are not competitive in a predictable few years. However, in the context of the energy crisis and the public's environmental protection appeal, the future of new energy vehicles is extremely bright. The operation mode is innovative, the environmental protection concept is publicized, and private capital is encouraged to enter. All kinds of measures are the best way to promote new energy vehicles under the current situation. The significance of the subsidy retreat is that manufacturers are expected to reduce the cost of new energy vehicles through technological advancement or large-scale production. The four ministries and commissions jointly promoted the promotion of new energy vehicles in pilot cities, which is also expected to break the local protection barriers in the new energy vehicle industry and promote the construction of charging facilities. However, the substantial improvement in the competitiveness of new energy vehicles is still hoping for a major breakthrough in charging technology and battery capacity density.
In view of the current situation that new energy vehicles are not competitive, subsidies will continue to fall, which is undoubtedly the best way at the moment. However, the subsidy is temporary, and no child can grow up by eating milk. Volkswagen CEO Wen Deen has said that he believes that the new battery storage technology has "great potential" and is expected to increase the cruising range of electric vehicles to 700 kilometers. The 700-kilometer endurance is more than four times the current cruising range and exceeds the 400-kilometer endurance of the Tesla Model S. In this case, are new energy vehicles still afraid of market competition?

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