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In addition to the changes in international crude oil prices, the growth of downstream business investment and changes in international market prices are also important factors affecting the prices of domestic petrochemical products in 2006.
In 2006, the investment in downstream industries of China's petrochemical products grew relatively quickly. Among them, the growth rates of investment in the chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber products, and plastic products industries during the first 11 months were 34%, 80.2%, and 47.9%, respectively, which were higher than the average growth rate of fixed asset investment by industries by 7.4, 53.6, and 21.3 percentage points respectively. . The total profits of the downstream companies also continued to grow. Among them, the total profits of the chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber products, and plastic products industries in the first 11 months were 6.369 billion yuan, 9.567 billion yuan, and 23.496 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 44.78% over the same period of the previous year. , 4.69% and 32.34%. The rapid development of downstream companies has led to strong domestic demand for petrochemical products, which has allowed their prices to continue to rise at historically high levels.
In 2006, the prices of petrochemical products in the international market also rose. Taking polyethylene as an example, the average price for the year was 1,341 US dollars per ton, up by 26.67% over the previous year. In 2006, China's imports of some petrochemical products were relatively large, including 18.07 million tons of primary plastics, accounting for more than one-third of domestic apparent consumption. Therefore, the rise in the price of petrochemical products in the international market has also had a major impact on the domestic market.
In 2007: The sharp drop in oil price will be an important factor in the acceleration of the oil price in the international market in 2007. It is expected that the oil price in the international market will continue in the fourth quarter of last year and may experience a sharp decline. This will have a big impact on the price of petrochemical products. In 2007, the domestic petrochemical industry The overall price of the product will decline.
Due to the slowdown in the global economic growth rate and the long-term high oil prices that have enabled oil consuming countries and importing countries to step up efforts to implement energy-saving measures, the increase in oil demand in 2007 will decrease, while the oil supply capacity will continue to increase. There are no major international political events in the oil region. In 2007, the oil price on the international market has fallen from last year and it is a foregone conclusion. The drop in oil prices in the international market will directly lead to a certain decline in the prices of international and domestic petrochemical products. Of course, due to factors such as the characteristics of the industrial chain, the price drop of petrochemical products will be less than the decline in oil prices.
Changes in the prices of related products will also have a certain impact on the price trend of petrochemical products, the most prominent of which is the impact of natural rubber prices on the price of synthetic rubber. If price of natural rubber rises in 2007 due to factors such as production and export of rubber-producing countries, synthetic rubber may be used as an alternative and its price may not change with the price of the overall petrochemical product.
In addition, from the overall situation of the ex-factory prices of domestic industrial products, the increase in the ex-factory prices of industrial products has continued to fall since the second half of 2006, of which, the price increase of production materials fell from 4.8% in July to 3.4% in November. If the overall increase in the domestic industrial product prices in 2007 continues to fall, it will also lead to a slight fall in petrochemical prices.
According to the "2007 World Economic Situation and Prospects" issued by the United Nations on January 10, the growth rate of the world economy in 2007 is expected to be 3.2%, which is a decrease from 4% in 2005 and 3.8% in 2006. Many research institutions believe that although the global economic growth rate will decline in 2007, the situation is still good and the demand for international and domestic petrochemical products will continue to increase. Therefore, the price of petrochemical products is unlikely to drop sharply.
Petrochemical prices will fall this year overall
In 2006, affected by the fluctuation of international oil prices, the prices of major petrochemical products in the country rose first and then fell. The overall price rose slightly from the previous year. In 2007, due to demand slowdown and other factors, the price of major petrochemical products will fall back. 2006: Downstream demand drives prices to rise. Affected by the sharp rise in international oil prices, the prices of major domestic petrochemical products were basically in a rising stage during the first three quarters of 2006. The price of petrochemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyester chips continued to rise. Even the severe overcapacity and sluggish PVC prices have increased. The highest price in September was 10.04% higher than the lowest in March. Affected by the sharp fall in international oil prices in September, the prices of major petrochemical products in the country in the fourth quarter basically fell back to stabilization. In the first half of this year, natural rubber, which has risen substantially, is affected by the drop in oil prices and the increase in the supply of international markets. Since the second half of the year, prices have fallen sharply, driving the price of butadiene rubber down by 6.4%.