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Overcapacity aggravates competition
According to the analysis data of SRI Consulting, the average annual growth rate of PP in recent years is about 6%, and the growth rate of PP demand in the world in 2009 will be 1.5% to 2.5%, and it will be 3% to 4.5% in 2010; An Indos, a leading PP producer, believes that global PP demand will be reduced by 1% in 2009 and will increase by 2.5% in 2010.
Analysts pointed out that the impact of excess capacity on the operating rate of PP plant will be great. Analyticals said that the global PP production capacity is expected to increase by 14 million tons between 2009 and 2013 and 69 million tons by 2013. During this period, it is expected that the demand will increase by only 11 million tons to reach 55 million tons. When the accumulated excess capacity exceeds 10 million tons in 2011, the operating rate will reach a minimum. If the operating rate is to reach 85% in 2011, 8 million tons/year of production capacity must be closed; to reach 90% of the operating rate, a total of 4 million tons/year of production lines need to be shut down.
In the next few years, the PP industry will undergo a major restructuring. Yves Bonte, Vice President of PP Business Unit of LyondellBasell, the world's leading PP producer, said: “More polyolefins produced in the Middle East will enter the European market, and Europe will shift from a net export area to a net. Imported regions.†Bonthe said that some countries in Southern and Eastern Europe were affected more. Andrea Borruso, a senior consultant at SRI Consulting, points out: "The larger share of PP from the Middle East will be exported directly to other parts of Asia, and its price in Southeast Asia will have an overwhelming advantage."
Targeting high value-added markets
Analysts pointed out that product value-added is the key to the success of PP suppliers in mature regions. Bob Dennett, senior consultant of CMAI's Polyolefins Business Department, said: "PP is not always a cheap resin, so its product specialization and diversification will be a key factor in market growth. "Chemie expects global PP demand growth to be 1% in 2009 and 4% in 2010.
The advanced Polyolefins Business Unit of LyondellBasell recently introduced a new high gloss, low shrinkage PP compound for use in household appliances such as washing machines to replace styrene based materials.
Manufacture of banknotes using biaxially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) as a substrate material has been promoted globally, it can be anti-counterfeit and can prolong the life of banknotes. More than 20 countries, mostly in the Asia Pacific region, use banknotes on polymer substrates. Innovia Films of the United Kingdom provided the base film for the production of banknotes and supplied it to Australian Security International for the printing of banknotes.
Dow Chemical's PP business is part of the company's basic plastics business. It has launched PP's innovative pipeline business and introduced 100MFR impact copolymers in Europe earlier this year. In addition, the company will also introduce new PP catalyst technology that can be used in a large number of installations in the Middle East.
Accelerate the process of capacity optimization
Despite the challenges faced by the PP industry, PP producers in mature regions will still maintain their PP business development. Analysts pointed out that for Dow Chemicals, basic plastics will continue to be its high-value business. In 2007, it shut down its PP plant in St. Charles, Louisiana, but there was no plan to further reduce PP capacity. .
In recent years, LyondellBasell closed a number of PP units, including three units in North America that were closed in 2008, with a total capacity of 500,000 tons/year; and in Germany, 24 million tons/year, which was closed in 2007 in Pernis, Netherlands. Device. Its existing PP capacity, including joint ventures, is approximately 8.5 million tons per year. In addition, in addition to expanding capacity in Saudi Arabia, the company is also looking for further opportunities for PP investment in other emerging markets. However, it has been determined that there will be delays in a few of the projects. Plans to build a petrochemical complex in the Atyrau region of Kazakhstan will include a 50 kt/yr PP unit using the Spherizone process, which is expected to be commissioned in 2014, one year behind schedule; PP in Point Lisas, Trinidad The project will also be postponed for one year and will be put into production in 2013.
In 2007, Ineos has closed its PP production line in two joint units in Texas, USA, with a total capacity of 445,000 tons/year. The company now operates four PP joint units in North America with a total capacity of 816,000 tons/year. In addition, it is also streamlining the European PP business, such as closing the 50,000 t/y PP line in Sarralbe, France, and halting the production of 175,000 t/y PP units in Bamble, Norway.
ExxonMobil is expanding PP capacity in two world-scale combined installations. In addition to the project in Quanzhou, Fujian, China, the company will complete its second set of petrochemical complex installations on Jurong Island in Singapore in 2011. The combined installation will include a 450,000 tonne/year PP plant, using Exxon Mobil Some PP technology.
Polypropylene giants to deal with the dilemma
Due to the global economic downturn and overcapacity, the world polypropylene (PP) industry faces major challenges in the coming years. Manufacturers in North America, Europe and Japan have closed a large number of obsolete PP units to increase economic efficiency. In addition, as the economy is still at a low level, a large number of investment projects have also been delayed or shelved. The new PP production capacity target in the Middle East is targeted at the export market, which puts pressure on the mature market producers and will further rationalize its PP production.