The fuel tax was implemented nationwide on January 1, 2009, which brought new opportunities and challenges to the heavy truck industry. The implementation of fuel tax has been nearly 9 months. Under the background of “tax-to-tax” reform, what has changed in the profitability and mode of heavy truck owners? What are the development trends in the heavy truck market?

Fuel tax brings gains

After the implementation of the fuel tax, the road maintenance fees, transportation management fees, and surcharges will be abolished. This will cause a great change in the user's car costs. Except for road maintenance fees, transportation management fees, and surcharges, all expenses will be fuel costs, Tolls and fixed fees (fixed fees mainly include insurance premiums, fines, etc.). Specifically, the annual operating expenses of different types of vehicles with different payloads on non-weighted toll expressways can be found in Table 1.

It can be seen that among the user expenditures, fuel costs account for the largest proportion and become the main factor affecting the user's revenue. Taking the 290-horsepower dump truck with a 12-ton load quality as an example, it can be seen from Table 2 that the annual revenue of users after the implementation of the fuel tax increases. After implementing the fuel tax, bicycle users will save 75,572 yuan a year, deducting the oil price factor (the same before and after the implementation of fuel costs), and saving 31,872 yuan a year after the implementation of the fuel tax. It can be said that in the current market environment, the implementation of the fuel tax policy has brought considerable profits to heavy truck users.

On the other hand, fuel costs are one of the main factors affecting the user's revenue (tolls on toll highways are the main factors that affect user revenue), plus fuel costs are determined by mileage, fuel prices, and fuel consumption. This is a direct relationship, which makes the unpredictability of fuel prices even more critical. Taking the data in Table 2 as an example, the profit after the implementation of the fuel tax was 75,572 yuan, but when the oil price rose 1.98 yuan, that is, rose 38.9%, or the mileage was 39,071 kilometers before the implementation of the fuel tax (38 liters of fuel consumption per 100 kilometers). At that time, there will be a flat fee before the implementation of the fuel tax.

Lower operating costs

At present, although the eastern coastal provinces and cities have canceled or plan to cancel the secondary road tolls, the cancellation of secondary road tolls in the western region will be a long-term process. After cancellation of the toll station, for the heavy truck users, the annual savings of about 260,000 yuan can be saved. (For example, the operation of loading 41 tons of 100,000 kilometers of annual operations on toll-weighted toll roads, the data comes from “10×4 cargoes” Car Status and Prospects Analysis)). According to relevant statistics of the Ministry of Transport, at present, secondary roads account for 42% of the country's road network, and secondary highways will cancel toll stations and further increase the flow of secondary roads. In this way, the cancellation of secondary road toll stations is a big plus for the heavy truck market.

There are two types of toll road tolls in two forms: one is to determine the size of the model according to the rated load quality marked by the vehicle's driving license, and to collect the fees according to a certain range; the other is to comply with the criteria for overloading of the Ministry of Transport, basically The toll is based on a standard of 10 tons per axle.

Therefore, to implement the fuel tax, the heavy-duty truck market is facing favorable conditions in areas where some secondary highway toll stations have been cancelled, and in areas where secondary highway tolls have not been cancelled, users need models with low rated-load quality.

In addition, the current consumption tax on refined oil collected from “quantitative quota” is roughly equivalent to 15%~20% of the current price of gasoline/diesel. In fact, the fuel tax reduces the burden on vehicles. According to the global economic situation, it is unlikely that all major industrial countries will fully emerge from this cycle of economic recession before 2010~2011, so the international oil price is unlikely to re-rate to US$100 per barrel in the short term. As a result, fuel costs are expected to remain at a relatively low level for a period of time on the premise that the cost of transportation will be reduced. This will give a boost to the heavy truck market.

Fuel-saving products will become dominant

The fuel tax is levied on the basis of “levying from quantity and price”, which reflects “more fuel and more payment”. However, after the implementation of fuel tax, domestic oil prices are in line with international standards, and there is ample room for fuel price increases. Therefore, the fuel economy of vehicles will become the most significant indicator of whether they will adapt to the market in the future.

As can be seen from Table 3, when the fuel consumption changes by about 10%, the user's annual fee varies from 15,000 to 20,000 yuan. This part of the cost can be saved if it can be saved, which is the user's net profit. Therefore, domestic auto companies will need to increase the efficiency of engine combustion (such as turbocharger, CVVT continuously variable timing valve, fuel supply system optimization technology, etc.), body lightweight materials and alternative fuel technologies in the future. Big technical research efforts.

Specifically, the implementation of the fuel tax has little effect on the quality parameters of the announcement. In areas where the secondary toll roads have not been cancelled, the road tolls for the “large ton and small-scale” vehicles are low, and there is still a certain market demand. Since the "large-tonneous-to-small-scale" users had such habits before the implementation of the fuel tax, with the gradual implementation of the policy, in order to avoid fines for the traffic police, some users' needs have changed to "small tons of large scale standards."

According to research figures, if the vehicle weight is reduced by 10%, the fuel efficiency can be increased by 6%~8%; if the rolling resistance is reduced by 10%, the fuel efficiency can be increased by 3%; if the transmission efficiency of the axle, transmission and other devices is increased by 10% Fuel efficiency can be increased by 7%. When the vehicle body accounts for about 30% of the total mass of the car, about 70% of the fuel consumption is used for the body mass under no-load conditions.

In terms of reducing self-respect, according to estimates by relevant agencies in foreign countries, each 100 kg of weight is reduced, and the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is expected to drop by 0.4 liters. If the annual mileage is 100,000 kilometers, a total of 400 liters of fuel can be saved, and the fuel price per litre is calculated at 5.09 yuan. Then only this item can save 2036 yuan. At present, the domestic commercial vehicle's self-weight is 10% to 15% higher than that of a foreign vehicle, which is relatively large.

Take an 8×2 truck developed by Futian Auman and other companies as an example, the third axis is the bearing axis, and the rear axle is the drive axis. The chassis's own weight is about 200-300 kg less than that of the 8×4 truck. If other factors (such as transmission factors) are not considered temporarily, then the self-weight of the 8×2 truck will be 200-300 kg less than that of the 8×4 model. Calculated in accordance with the above method, driving 100,000 kilometers a year, can save costs 4072 ~ 6108 yuan. Therefore, the development of lightweight vehicles, such as 8×2, is in line with current fuel tax policies and can better meet market demand.

As the object of the fuel tax levy in the "Optimized Product Oil Tax Reform Plan," only mentions gasoline and diesel vehicles, and it is not clear whether the new energy vehicle will cancel the fixed-rate fees and other fixed expenses. It is understood that new energy (non-gasoline, diesel) vehicles are not within the scope of the collection of fuel consumption tax, but also cancel the fixed costs such as road maintenance fees. Compared with traditional fuels (gasoline and diesel vehicles), the country’s exemption from fuel taxation has made the new energy vehicles that have gained an economic advantage prior to the implementation of the fuel tax another one-fold advantage. In addition, the state continues to increase its efforts to encourage new energy sources. The development of automobiles and subsidies from the economy will undoubtedly stimulate the development of domestic new energy vehicles.

Assuming the other costs are the same, as can be seen from Table 4, the tractors that use CNG as fuel will save 83,250 yuan more than the diesel tractors whose horsepower is under the same load. Therefore, it is of great significance to develop alternative energy vehicles that replace traditional fuels.

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