In the face of high-priced natural rubber, the China Rubber Industry Association in the fourth quarter of 2010 had represented the tire industry to request “support” from the relevant national authorities, but it did not receive a reply. After a period of suffering, natural rubber prices continued to rise, and the tire industry once again called for help.

According to the relevant person of the China Rubber Association, the tire industry has already reached nearly 50% of the total loss. The association is drafting relevant documents and requests for assistance from the relevant state authorities. Industry analysts believe that even if the state provides assistance in accordance with the Association's request, it can only temporarily ease the cost pressure on the tire industry. What the industry really needs to do is to actively cope with more crucial contradictions such as overcapacity, bigness and not strength.

The attitude of rubber prices rose resolutely

In February 2010, when the natural rubber price entered the price of more than 25,000 yuan/ton, many market participants began to think that the rubber price was too high. However, the price of natural rubber has exceeded 30,000 yuan/ton, 35,000 yuan/ton, and 37,000 yuan/year afterwards. Tons and other psychological barriers.

Natural rubber futures market shows that on January 14, 2011, the main contract of natural rubber 1105 opened in early trading at 38,000 yuan / ton, and once fell to 37,545 yuan / ton, but the strong daily plastic and strong foreign spot makes a large number of buying re-entry In the field, the 1105 rebounded strongly. Before the close, the stock pulled even higher to 38,570 yuan/ton, and the trend gained 0.97% throughout the day. Japanese rubber remained strong, with the benchmark contract rising above 450 yen/kg, closing at 454.4 yen/kg, and rising 1.34% throughout the day.

Galaxy Futures Research Institute said that compared with the Japanese plastic, Hujiao weak trend, investors can buy plastic Hujiao sell arbitrage. Domestic rubber is under pressure from the downstream sluggishness and futures market pressure. The current trend has been suppressed. The spread with Japanese rubber has reached an unprecedented 13,000 yuan/ton, which is too much behind Japan's rubber. Under the boost of Nippon Rubber, the latter capital will continue to Influx, Hujiao upward probability of breakthrough.

As for the rise in rubber prices, Feng Wang, general manager of Fengshen Tire Co., Ltd. believes that as a market economy, the price fluctuation of any raw material should be normal, but the natural rubber price fluctuations are extremely abnormal, is subject to some interest groups at home and abroad. The speculation caused it to rise wildly, approaching $5,500/ton at the highest, and now it is also close to $5,300/ton, and the initial judgment is that the beneficiaries are not in China. The natural rubber market has been driven by a non-market interest. However, Yuan Jing said that large funds have indeed begun to intervene, but spot prices are also rising wildly, and the strong fundamentals of natural rubber have not changed.

The cost is difficult to pass

The increase in price of natural rubber led to the increase in the price of synthetic rubber, which led to a sharp increase in the cost pressure of tire companies and a significant decline in profits.

Shen Jinrong, chairman of Hangzhou Zhongcei Co., Ltd., said that at present natural rubber accounts for more than 50% of the cost of raw materials, and the price of synthetic rubber has also risen sharply. These two items add up to more than 70% of the cost of raw materials.

China Rubber Association said that the high price of natural rubber has raised the production cost of nearly 50% of tire companies. Although the company has repeatedly raised tire prices, it still cannot offset the cost increase caused by raw material price increases. According to the statistics of the association, the profit of tire companies in January-November fell 22% year-on-year, with a loss of 26%, and the tire industry’s total loss was nearly 50%. At present, it is the most severe moment for the tire industry since the special security case.

Compared with the “good days” in 2009, the current operating efficiency of the tire industry can be described as a difference. Benefiting from the drop in raw material prices and the explosive growth of car sales, the tire industry quickly got out of the trough in the fourth quarter of 2008 and ushered in the peak of profits in 2009. The industry’s average profit margin has increased from the previous 1%-3% to 5%. . However, the longevity is not long and the price of natural rubber is gradually rising. Fan Rende, the president of the China Rubber Association, judged in the first half of 2010 that the tire industry in 2010 was hard to come by.

Faced with rising cost pressures, on January 13, 2011, the China Rubber Association held an emergency tire economic analysis meeting in Beijing. Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co., Ltd., Aeolus Tyre Co., Ltd., Shuangqin Group Co., Ltd., Guizhou Tire Co., Ltd., Triangle Group Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Huanan Rubber Tyre Co., Ltd., Shandong Linglong Tire Co., Ltd. and other seven tire companies. At the meeting, it was agreed that the most direct and effective way to resolve the current plight of the tire industry and to stabilize the price of natural rubber is to put the state reserve glue into the market as soon as possible, and at the same time eliminate import tariffs on natural rubber as soon as possible.

However, relevant industry analysts believe that even if the country throws away reserves, it will only temporarily ease the pressure on tire companies, and even a glass of water. China’s dependence on natural rubber is too high, and the overcapacity in the tire industry is quite serious. This situation cannot be avoided. From another perspective, the current external pressure is a favorable opportunity for the industry to make structural adjustments.

To ease the cost pressure from the source, tire companies should speed up the pace and go abroad to grow natural rubber. Affected by the geographical environment, natural rubber produced in China has remained around 600,000 tons in recent years. About 70% of natural rubber in China depends on imports. Many companies go abroad to grow natural rubber, but progress has been slow.

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