Monitoring data from a number of agencies showed that one of the necessary conditions for the adjustment of domestic refined oil retail prices—the change rate of crude oil in the three places has fallen below 4%, implying that the reduction in domestic oil prices is only a matter of time. On the other hand, with the recent sharp decline in international oil prices, the domestic wholesale price of refined oil has also continued to decline. This indicates that domestic oil retailers will usher in a short period of "windfall".

Zhongyu Information Data shows that as of May 25th, crude oil in the outer disk of the three places has been trading at a weighted average price of USD 113.534 per barrel for 22 consecutive days. The change rate of crude oil in the three places was negative by 4.18%, which was 0.39% lower than the previous day. In addition, Zhuochuang Information’s data is negative 4.19%, Treasure Island's data is negative 4.32%.

“At present, the rate of change in crude oil in the three places has officially fallen below the '4%' price adjustment condition, but due to the fact that the requirements for 22 working days are still not met, it is still necessary to wait a few days for the refined oil price adjustments to land. It is expected that the price of domestic refined oil products on June 9th will be The new round of downward adjustment is expected to be reduced by 450-500 yuan/ton. If the price is estimated to be 500 yuan/ton, the retail price of gasoline standard products will be lowered by approximately 0.36 yuan/liter and diesel oil by approximately 0.43 yuan/liter." Wang Jintao, an analyst at Yuyu Oil Products Market, said yesterday.

The Zhuochuang model shows that if the international oil price continues to fluctuate and decline on June 9, the rate of change in the three regions will be expected to fall below 7%, and the refined oil product will be reduced by 600 yuan/ton. It is expected that before the price adjustment is implemented, the domestic refined oil market will be overshadowed by expectations, and the market will not be able to improve.

“However, the upcoming summer peak demand may prevent crude oil prices from continuing to fall. In June, crude oil prices bottomed out, but the market’s bearish sentiment still dominates the market. It is expected that this week’s crude oil imports from processing and processing will be reduced or will be slightly smaller. Increase,” said Lu Bin, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information Technology.

With the continued decline in the wholesale price of refined oil products, domestic gasoline and diesel retailers are enjoying a rare short-term “windfall”. Treasure Island data showed that on April 29, the 93 gasoline index was 9847, which was 16% lower than the previous trading day; the 97th gasoline index was 10536, down 9 from the previous trading day, with quotes from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, etc. falling widely. The diesel index was 8401, down 6 from the previous trading day, and the decline in East China was significant, with sporadic declines in North China, South China, and Central China. "As the wholesale price gap increases, the gross profit per litre of gasoline and diesel at gas stations can be as high as 7, 8 gross. For gas stations, it means that there is more room for discount sales." Jian told reporters on the 29th.

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