"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" reported on December 14 that the main economic statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on December 12 showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.6 percentage points. Driven by tax cuts, the production of cars has recovered. However, the surplus industries such as steel and cement are still sluggish. The new investment in the real estate market, which is heavily burdened by inventory, has also slowed further, and the downward pressure on the Chinese economy is still not small.

The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in November has reached its highest level in five months since June (up 6.8%). It is the car that plays the role of pulling. In November, the new car sales in November increased by 20% year-on-year due to the small car tax reduction policy implemented in October and the price cuts initiated by various automakers. Automobile manufacturers increased production by focusing on sales growth. In November, vehicle production increased by 16% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly larger than that of the previous month (up 4.9%).

In stark contrast to the automotive industry is the “thick and large” manufacturing industry with a serious excess of equipment. The production of steel in November changed from a 0.2% decrease in the previous month to an increase, but only increased by 2%. Cement production decreased by 6.6% and glass sheet production decreased by 3.4%, which was negative.

According to a report released by the Chinese government's Metallurgical Industry Planning Institute, China's steel consumption in 2015 is expected to decrease by 4.8% year-on-year to 668 million tons. For the first time since 1995, there has been a decline since 20 years. The wholesale price index fell for the 45th consecutive month in November. The manufacturing industry as a whole is still unable to get rid of deflationary pressures.

The sluggish real estate investment has dragged down the overall composition. Residential sales in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have recovered, but most local urban residential sales have recovered slowly. As of the end of November, real estate stocks reached 69,600 square meters, an increase of nearly 100 million square meters compared with 1 year ago.

As the inventory could not be digested, the new investment stagnated. The real estate development investment in January-November increased by 1.3% over the same period of the previous year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.7 percentage points compared with January-October. Compared with the growth rate of around 20% in 2013 and around 10% in 2014, the growth rate is almost zero.

Fixed-asset investment reflecting construction and equipment investment propensity increased by 10.2% year-on-year from January to November, which was basically the same as January-October. Railway and infrastructure construction constitute support, but the willingness of enterprises to invest is low.

On the other hand, consumption is strong. The total retail sales of consumer goods in November increased by 11.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate expanded for four consecutive months. The “Double Eleven” promotion effect played a pulling role, and Internet sales pushed up overall consumption.

China's economy continues to decline, and more and more people believe that the US will raise interest rates this month, and funds are accelerating from China to overseas. In order to maintain the liquidity of domestic funds and reduce the burden of repayment of manufacturing, the Chinese authorities are likely to further implement economic stimulus policies such as additional monetary easing.

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