In 1834, an American named Thomas Davenport mounted a DC motor on a car so that it could move on an endless electrified track. Half a century later, the first commercial electric car appeared on the streets of New York in the image of a taxi in 1897. Soon, in 1900, electric vehicles occupied 28% of the American road car market; in 1912, the global electric vehicle population reached 30,000.

However, the good times are not long. With the advancement of internal combustion engine technology, and the resulting cost reductions, and the supply of large quantities of cheap oil to the rest of the world, the disadvantages of electric vehicles in terms of battery weight, cruising range, charging duration, and high loss have become increasingly prominent, until 1935. , electric cars almost disappeared from the market.

Thirty years of Hedong, thirty years of Hexi. Human society based on fossil energy quickly encountered serious car exhaust pollution. In 1966, the United States Congress passed legislation recommending that electric vehicles be used as a means of reducing air pollution. A few years later, the 1973 oil embargo imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept oil prices high.

Since then, from the R&D subsidies for electric vehicles to the exhaust emission standards for automobiles, governments across the world have rushed to introduce various policies to push the electric car industry. Soon, as the world's first commercial hybrid car, the Toyota Prius sold 18,000 units in its first year of operation. When oil prices exceeded US$145 a barrel in 2008, Nissan also introduced the pure electric battery car Leaf in 2010.

In spite of this, the powerful auto manufacturers do not dare to make full use of the electric vehicle market because this special commodity is still far from economies of scale. This means that it still depends to a large extent on government subsidies, whether it is on the scientific side, on consumer purchases, or on the infrastructure of the charging network. Therefore, the government's choice of subsidy policy has become a choice of technology path in disguise. This has become the biggest uncontrollable factor for manufacturers.

There is no dominant technology route

Back in the 18th century, Leibniz invented the binary, but if it was not the first census of the United States in 1880, the statistician Herman Hollerich would not rely on the binary principle to invent the punched tape. This product later became the main business of IBM’s predecessor, CTR. Later, binary has become the basis for human digital survival.

Basic technology is there. The key lies in what kind of market the company chooses to use basic technologies, and then what technologies to further develop. The same is true for electric cars. The traditional automobile always lacks the internal combustion engine and the fuel tank, but the new energy vehicle is diverging from different technologies because of its different internal organs.

The first difference is whether the battery is loaded with a battery that can store or discharge electricity, or a fuel cell that cannot store electricity (FuelCell). The principle of a fuel cell vehicle is that the hydrogen used as a fuel and the oxygen in the atmosphere undergo a redox chemical reaction, thereby generating electrical energy to drive the motor. Of the current commercial cars, Toyota only started selling the Mirai on December 15, 2014 in Japan.

Vehicles equipped with batteries are charged according to whether or not they need to be plugged into the grid, and are divided into hybrid (HEV) and electric vehicles. Hybrid power refers to the use of both gasoline-powered and battery-powered systems at the same time. It represents hybrid versions of the Toyota Prius, Ford Maverick, Hyundai Sonata, and the BMW X6. Such vehicles are considered to be "the market today" because of their good dynamic performance, low emissions, and independence from the power grid.

The vehicles connected to the grid are classified into pure electric (EV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV), and extended-range electric (EV) based on their dependence on gasoline and the working mechanism of the hybrid engine. This large category of vehicles also belongs to the supporters of electric mobility policies in countries including China and Germany.

At present, the Chinese government hopes to realize "turning overtaking" is a pure electric vehicle. Pure electric vehicles bypass the complex and insurmountable internal-combustion engine technology of traditional automobiles, and thus give Chinese automakers the opportunity of “turning overtakes”.

The key point of a pure electric vehicle is the battery. The on-board battery needs to be in a limited space, the power must be over 100 kilowatts (kW), and the electricity should exceed tens of kilowatt-hours (kWh). At the same time, consumers should be able to afford it. From.

The car market's positioning determines its technical choice for the battery.

Nissan Leaf, which targets the general consumer population, chose a relatively inexpensive lithium-ion battery pack (Li-ion), which can supply 24kWh of electricity, enough to support the car's 100km run and one-fifth the mileage of a conventional internal combustion engine. However, the price of the battery pack is as high as 12,000 U.S. dollars, accounting for one-third of the retail price of the vehicle (US market). For the Tesla ModelS, which targets the high-end market, it is not hesitate to do 85 kWh of electricity and run 480 kilometers. It is the highest EV range in the world.

Currently, the price of lithium-ion battery packs can be between $500 and $650 per kWh. However, the industry estimates that if the electric vehicle is to achieve economies of scale, the unit price of the battery pack should be less than US$200. It is precisely for this reason that Dr. Joachim Pfeiffer, a member of the German Federal Party responsible for economic affairs, said in an interview with the author: “(Electric cars) is still a future market. The government should not use subsidies to drive the market.”

Taking into account consumer fears about the mileage of electric vehicles, many OEMs have introduced plug-in hybrid vehicles, but it has alleviated the fear of mileage and brought price concerns. Although the Chevrolet Volt uses a 16 kWh battery pack, its hybrid system is expensive and the final price is nearly $5,000 more expensive than the Nissan Leaf.

More important than price is security. Compared with lithium-ion batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries (NiMH) technology is more mature, so, in addition to the modern Sonata hybrid version uses lithium polymer battery (Lithium polymer), most hybrid models have chosen nickel-hydrogen The battery, which includes the hybrid version of the Toyota Prius and the Mercedes-Benz ML450.

Therefore, in the case where the market, technology, and subsidy policies are all uncertain, most of the traditional car companies choose to compete on the hybrid and grid-incorporated technology path.

GM has both plugged hybrid Chevrolet Volenda and hybrid Saturn; BMW has both pure electric i3 and MiniE, and hybrid X6; Toyota also launched pure electric after successful hybrid Prius. RAV4EV also introduced the fuel cell car Mirai.

There is a huge risk of the government choosing the technical route

From the South American continent to the Pacific Ocean, about 1,000 kilometers away, there is a volcanic island belonging to Ecuador called Galapagos. Animals on the island evolved with their own characteristics because they were far away from the mainland. This phenomenon has also been used to describe Japan's industry, that is, to be invincible in the country, but it is losing ground globally.

Toyota's fuel cell car Mirai has not been launched and has received such criticism. In an interview with the media, ShigeruShoji, president of Volkswagen Group Japan, said: "Mirai may be able to take off in Japan, but it doesn't fly to the whole world." Yasuo Maruta, spokesperson for Volkswagen Group Japan, said without mercy: " This is a transaction between Abe and Toyota."

In September 2014, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made a public speech during his visit to the United States. In explaining his strategy for economic growth, he focused on the concept of a "hydrogen society." In this system, it begins with the production of hydrogen from renewable energy sources such as wind and electricity, goes to hydrogen refueling stations to make it a hydrogen fuel for fuel cell vehicles, and can also use the fuel cells of buildings to serve households to consume energy. To make society's energy structure replace carbon with hydrogen and achieve zero emissions.

The retail price of Toyota Mirai is 6.7 million yen (about 350,000 yuan), and the Japanese government plans to subsidize 2 million yen (about 105,000 yuan).

However, Toyota Group only hopes that in the first year, 400 cars will be sold in Japan and 300 vehicles will be sold outside of Japan. One of the important reasons is that there are only dozens of hydrogen fuel supply stations in the world, and Japan has built about 30. In order to realize his "hydrogen society" plan, Abe will also invest a lot of money in infrastructure. According to the Japanese New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), in addition to R&D input, Japan will build 100 hydrogen fuel supply stations in FY2015, and plans to bring household fuel cells to 1.4 million units in 2020.

Germany launched a 10-year hydrogen and fuel cell innovation project (NIP) as early as 2006, but it was quickly overshadowed by the National Electric Traffic Development Plan in 2009. The plan believes that electric traffic should be a systematic solution that includes vehicles, intelligent transportation, and smart grids; and that electric vehicles include three kinds of technology paths: pure electricity, plug-in hybrid, and extended-range electric.

The Germans believe that the success of electric vehicles is largely constrained by the complementary products of electric vehicles, such as whether the distribution of charging points is reasonable. However, research from the Center for Innovation in Mobile and Social Change in Germany shows that the variables in the future, besides younger groups tend to share cars rather than owning cars, consumers are also more prone to flexible travel. Therefore, the only way to grasp the future is to conduct large-scale highway tests to predict possible travel patterns and consumer behavior.

Under the new stimulus policy, the German government has funded eight electric mobility demonstration zones and four demonstration window projects, one for large-scale outdoor research and the second for the promotion of electric mobility. The German railway company, known for its strike and lateness, and actively seeking for its own digital transformation, actively participated in the “Berlin and Brandenburg” demonstration window project. Therefore, this project has set the goal of combining electric vehicles with public transportation from the very beginning of the design and designed its car rental business.

As of January 1, 2014, only 25.5% of the 12,156 electric cars registered in Germany were privately owned, and 32.7% were owned by car companies for research and promotion.

It is grid-connected electric vehicles, intelligent transportation, smart grids, fuel cells, hydrogen fuel supply stations, and hydrogen society, which have far surpassed the technical path of electric vehicles, but the whole society has changed from one equilibrium to another.

The bad news is that once electric cars go beyond the industry and become like public goods, it becomes a political issue.

From an equilibrium to another equilibrium, this can be mathematically defined by chaos theory or nonlinearity. In such a transformation, the uncertainty faced by each participant is enormous.

Therefore, the government's stimulus policy can not be like the traditional counter-cyclical intervention, or in the catch-up mode, blindly focus on resources to stimulate demand, thus disguised choice of technology path. Otherwise, once the wrong choices are made, companies following this technological path will put themselves on the island of Galapagos.

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