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LED industry's future six major market trends
A few days ago, Shawn Hsieh, chairman of GlacialTech, Inc., wrote an article to predict the technological development of the LED lighting industry. He said that the global LED lighting industry will bring a market size of 110 billion US dollars. Last year's sales have exceeded 25 billion US dollars, which is 11% of the global electronic market. He also predicted the six major development trends of the LED lighting industry in 2016. Shawn Hsieh, Chairman of GlacialTech, predicts the next six trends in the LED industry Shawn Hsieh said that the LED industry is still in its infancy, and the market is like a green field with a large number of players and a scattered pattern. Some of the top LED lighting brands such as Philips, Osram, Panasonic, General Electric, Vision Brand, Fort Lauderdale, Toshiba, Cooper Lighting, Cree and Haber have a total market share of no more than 30% in the lighting industry. Most of the rest of the market space is dominated by smaller suppliers and emerging companies with unique products and innovative business models. Therefore, there are many opportunities in the LED lighting market, but the competition is particularly fierce. According to the current market situation, Shawn Hsieh predicts that the following six major market trends will occur in the LED lighting industry in 2016: The price war in the LED lighting industry will become more intense, especially in the LED packaging field. In some aspects, LED lighting is similar to CPU, a complex The finished product is assembled from components designed by different manufacturers, contractors and suppliers. Both are driven by semiconductor processes. Just as Moore's Law predicts an increase in CPU and memory performance over the years, LED performance and luminous efficiency are also driven by transistor density and manufacturing processes. The LED packaging market is like a CPU, and it needs to continuously improve the production process to improve performance. However, the CPU in the computer industry is monopolized by the Intel Group, while the LED industry has several competitive leading brands and some local suppliers, so the market competition will be more intense. Price competition in this market segment means that LED package prices will continue to decline while performance continues to increase. We expect the most cost-effective, energy-efficient LED lighting module to drop to $0.13/W by the end of the year, while the price of 150 lm/W LED lighting modules will drop to $0.10/W or less by the end of 2016. Source of value will shift from LED lighting components to drives and cooling modules Shawn Hsieh predicts that the cost of a 100W LED luminaire will reach $10 by the end of next year. The same 100W mid-range and high-end LED luminaires, the cost of the thermal module or LED driver will be two to three times that of the lighting components. The value of LED lighting products will shift from LED lighting components to LED drivers and thermal modules. This is because the manufacturing process of LED packages will become more and more automated, and the price of LED lighting components will become cheaper and cheaper. However, the production of heat dissipation modules and LED drivers is more dependent on raw materials and labor costs, and lacks price flexibility. Unless the price of the raw material changes, the material cost of the heat sink module or LED driver is almost constant without excessive fluctuations. The gross margin of LED lighting modules will continue to impact other zero devices. Compared with LED drivers and thermal design, LED packaging requires high manpower and capital investment. Not only must we build a factory, but we also need to invest a lot of money to purchase packaging equipment. In addition, high operating costs and manpower reserves are required. Coupled with fierce competition, the profit is meager. On the other hand, in the LED power supply and cooling industry, several advanced design engineers are enough to design effective cost-effective products with relatively low labor costs. And the equipment used to manufacture LED drivers and cooling modules often does not need to be so professional, and it is also cheaper to use depreciated equipment and has a large profit margin. Therefore, the LED lighting module's gross margin will be higher than other zero devices. COB packaging will have a bright future As the cost of raw materials declines, the quality and efficiency of COB continues to increase. Sales of COB packaging products will continue to rise in the next few years. Especially for compact COBs with more LED luminaire designs. There are already 100W, 200W, and even more than 300W COBLEDs on the market. Only a strong COB plus high-quality lens, cooling module and low-power LED driver can help LED luminaire manufacturers produce a 100W~300W (system light efficiency over 100 lumens / watt, CRI80) lighting products . The material cost of COB packaged luminaires is significantly lower than that of traditional package luminaires, and the assembly process is simplified, further reducing labor costs. The price competition market will be vertically integrated, and the high-end lighting market will focus more and more on the lighting industry. The bulbs and tubes are relatively low-priced, so they are suitable for vertical integration, through LED packaging, plastic injection molding, metal stamping, assembly, and finally The packaging process enables fully automated production to increase profitability. The high-end lighting market may not be able to effectively increase the price-performance ratio of each component due to the individualized design of the lighting and the special application, making the product more competitive. As a result, companies targeting high-end lighting products are less likely to benefit from vertical integration, and can consider focusing on their product market expansion to maximize profits and market share. While well-known brands dominate the market, emerging LED companies with innovative technologies and unique products still have the opportunity. With a rich array of high-quality LED package suppliers, luminaire manufacturers have many options. With the development of COB LEDs, lighting companies can more easily manufacture LED lighting products. This is why more and more new companies are joining the industry, in addition to world-renowned brands and regional brands. Just as innovative technologies and business models have driven the development of the computer industry, the LED industry will continue to mature. The next generation of LED lighting will drive industry growth by leading-edge LED companies that can see market trends and take advantage of the latest technology.