On April 2, the ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Administration of Taxation, as well as the China Machine Center, issued a new policy related to new energy vehicles. Among them, the three ministries and commissions jointly issued an announcement regarding the further strengthening of the “Catalogue of New Energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Taxes” (hereinafter referred to as “Catalogue”), which clearly stipulates that in the future, if no new car arrives in the catalogue for a year, the catalogue will be cancelled. The China Machine Center issued an understanding of several issues in the implementation of the "Circular on Adjusting and Perfecting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles," and interpreted new policies such as "discounting" of subsidies during the transitional period.

Obviously, national policies have tightened the pockets for new energy subsidies, and the attitude of “necessity must be relatively clear” has been very clear, and new energy car companies have begun to gradually accept this reality. In the past March, a number of different brands of new energy new vehicles launched by car companies including Teng Shi and Beiqi New Energy have given more than expected answers on pricing, and they have to pay their own bills to fill in due to subsidies. The difference in subsidy caused by the decline in slopes is becoming a new competitive means for new energy enterprises. On the other hand, as new models with higher driving ranges continue to be launched, the repurchase and replacement of existing models by a number of car companies have also started a few days ago. For car companies, this is also a new funding requirement. .

When the cost reduction and rising consumer demand have not reached the critical point of profit and loss for the scaled production of new energy vehicles, the digestion of the subsidy withdrawal effect and the start of the downstream industrial chain can only be borne by the company’s own funds. For the implementation of the new energy points system in 2019 and before the start of the transaction, whether it can survive this round of capital-consuming war, many car companies have no end in mind. “We have ambushed all four behind us. This kind of smoke has already been smelled. We have no way to judge how long we can live. We can only fight on the basis of our own competitiveness.” said Liu Xinwen, director and general manager of Yundu New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. The new energy vehicle company announced on March 10 its three-and-a-half-year repurchasing of new energy used cars.

Car prices resolve pressure on their own

On March 26, Teng Shi 500 was formally listed. According to the information announced to the public, the new vehicle's cruising range reached 500 kilometers, becoming the highest electric vehicle in the country's domestic production. However, in the case of subsidy withdrawal, the price of the Teng 500 as an upgraded version was reduced compared with the Teng 400 listed a year ago. The pre-sale price of the two new vehicles after subsidies was 299,800 yuan - 329,800. yuan. When the Teng Shi 400 was listed in 2017, the subsidy price in Beijing was RMB 303,800 – 366,800.

On February 13 this year, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Adjusting and Perfecting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”), which has formulated a new subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2018. The standard, which puts forward higher requirements for the cruising range of the vehicle and the energy density of the power battery. It also stipulates that the period from February 12, 2018 to June 11, 2018 will be a transitional period. During this period, new energy passenger vehicles and new energy passenger vehicles on board will be executed at 0.7 times the 2017 subsidy standard, and will be implemented after June 12th in 2018. Subsidy standard.

In order to avoid the intensive listing of new energy vehicles after June 12, after the introduction of subsidy policies, including the new Volkswagen new e-Golf, Teng 500, Beijing New Energy EX360, Yundu π3, SAIC Roewe Ei5, BYD Qin EV450 / Song EV400 /e5 450, Chery tiggo 3xe, Geely emgrand EV450 selected after the Spring Festival holiday, in March before the Beijing auto show concentrated listing. Concerns about the low subsidy during the transition period, car companies have chosen to fill their own.

According to statistics from the industry, the industry’s subsidy for the New Deal brought about more than 30% subsidy reduction. Although the driving range of new models launched in 2018 has generally increased, the subsidies are also related to battery energy density and energy consumption. Therefore, it is not ruled out that after the end of the transition period, the subsidies for many models may be lower than in the transitional period, and even some low-end models will be returned to zero due to the lack of energy density requirements. This has also become one of the reasons for the new energy models being brought together in the near future.

At the same time, the subsidy that was limited to no more than 50% of the central subsidy also began to drastically decline in different degrees. “For the situation of inconsistent subsidies across all regions of the country, we implement unified national prices, and formulate uniform prices based on the regions with the highest subsidies. Subsidy differences are borne by companies,” said Hu Xiaoqing, vice president of sales and marketing at Tengxi New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. According to the technical parameters of the Teng 500, its subsidies have been reduced by more than 20,000 yuan from last year. This means that behind the lower prices, the profits of bicycles may be reduced again.

This is not only the case of Tengshi. At the same time, the new car EX360, a new electric pure-purity SUV that is listed at the same time, has also given state subsidies, local subsidies, and Beiqi New Energy Wei Lan Funding Subsidy Triple Subsidy. The new Dorsett EV450 and the new Di Hao launched on March 29th. The EV 350 also proposed that countries beyond June 12 be oversubsidized and paid out to consumers in advance by the company. What is more noteworthy is that the new and new energy vehicle sales aftermarket is also officially launched. Subsidy's sharp decline has prompted companies to quickly fill the gaps in this area. On March 10, the new energy auto company cloud-provided a "buy-back pi plan", announcing that for customers with the cloud-based new energy vehicles within 60,000 kilometers of their hands, the company will buy back vehicles at a price of 50% of the purchase price; Subsequently, the operating company will be launched, as well as a cloud-certified second-hand car company to handle the repurchase vehicles.

Yundu hopes to use this as a fulcrum to instigate the problem of low maintenance of new energy vehicles while at the same time inciting new industrial chains including new energy used cars and new energy upgrades. Teng Shi also launched a redemption business for used cars when the new vehicle was launched, and announced that the first batch of Tengshi retain customers who want to replace the Teng 500, as long as it meets certain requirements, Teng Shi will maintain a value of no less than 50% of the transaction price. For repurchasing, the user chooses to use the repurchase amount as the down payment for the Teng 500, and can also directly deduct the purchase price.

The capital expenditure battle before the start of the credit system

Whether it is to pay a subsidy on selling price or to repurchase and dispose of old cars, it means that new energy car companies will have greater capital requirements for market development and marketing. This will be intertwined with subsidy retreat, and it will give car companies a fee. Bring more pressure. On the technical level, only the cost reduction can be expected for the stress relief approach.

How quickly will the cost of new energy vehicles fall and the rate of decline in subsidies be faster? This is a proposition that does not currently have an accurate answer. More than 40% of the cost of new energy vehicles is used in batteries. Take Ningde, a leading battery company, as an example. According to the data in its prospectus, the average price of Ningde Power Battery System fell by 9.74% year-on-year in 2016. The rate is even greater, reaching 31.59%, which looks worth looking forward to, but the R&D investment behind it is huge.

In the January 2018 session of the Electric Vehicles Centenary Forum, Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, also revealed that in 2017, the energy density of leading battery power units reached 2 watt-hours/kilogram, and the price reached 1.2 yuan/Wh. These two indicators have doubled over 2012 and decreased by 70% respectively. However, as with all technologies, there will be a bottleneck in the decline in battery costs, and subsidies for new energy sources will be completely eliminated from 2021. The industry believes that there is little expectation that the two curves will converge at this point in time.

Since 2019, the new energy points system is expected to bring new profit points to new energy car companies. Therefore, in 2018, it will be a year in which new energy auto makers will face significant financial pressure. In addition to paying the subsidies on selling prices and buying and processing old cars, the rapid start-up of new energy sources by joint ventures will increase this. The intensity of competition in a field.

If the new energy automobile market before 2018 is still a complete policy market, starting from 2018, with the rapid launch of new energy vehicles for joint ventures to prepare for new energy points, this area will quickly enter the free competition The warm period, especially the rapid start-up of the public in the new energy field, will drive the fast-tracking of this area. It is still difficult to say how long the second-line new energy car brands, including Yundu, can support. The industry view holds that the ever-changing market competition makes new energy companies' pricing and marketing strategies full of unpredictability.

In the face of price wars and marketing campaigns that have already started, it is clear that only car companies with strong financial strength can stick to the end. For the main players currently participating, the current is not bad money. Which has achieved two years of profit, but these profits are mainly supported by subsidies, with subsidies and battery density and other hard indicators linked to the subsidy of low-end models of BAIC New Energy will be significantly reduced, but the killer of Beiqi New Energy is the upcoming IPO, financing Will solve its problems. Although Teng Shi continued to lose money, but backed by the “big tree”, Daimler and BYD had a blood transfusion of 500 million yuan at the same time last year to solve their difficulties. At present, Teng Shi has fully settled in Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places of Mesay. Desi Mercedes authorized stores, follow-up funding and marketing support will not be a problem. Geely, which has just announced its new energy vehicle plan, also needs no worry about funding.

However, the worry of subsidy retreat has clearly become a reality. BYD (002594.SZ) stated in its latest financial report that it expects net profit in the first quarter of 2018 to fall by 75.2%-91.8% to RMB 50 million to RMB 150 million in 2018, mainly due to subsidies from new energy vehicles. Slope impact. From the perspective of companies resisting the pressure to actively lay out the new energy after-sales chain, local auto makers have realized that full competition has started, and whoever has the earliest arrangement will have even greater chances of winning. It is inevitable to “burn money” during this period. "The future policy is not entirely subsidized. After all, there are double points, there are some other aspects that can support new energy vehicles, the country will not watch the new energy vehicles will be over in 2021, there will be a better mechanism. Liu Xinwen said that he is still full of confidence in the future market of new energy.